Termez Surkhon vs Mash'al: match statistics
Termez Surkhon vs Mash'al: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Termez Surkhon played Mash'al in Uzbekistan Super League (Uzbekistan). The match was played on 22 April 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Termez Surkhon: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Mash'al: 0-0-5, 0.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Termez Surkhon scores 0.75 and concedes 1.38 goals per match. Mash'al scores 0.25 and concedes 1.88. League average: 2.50 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Termez Surkhon 38%, Mash'al 25%. Over 2.5: Termez Surkhon 38%, Mash'al 38%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Termez Surkhon has higher xG: 1.16 vs 1.09. Termez Surkhon: 11.0 shots per match, Mash'al: 8.6.
Match halves
Termez Surkhon: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.38. Mash'al: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.25.
Goals by minute
Termez Surkhon: 0-15 (2 goals). Mash'al: 61-75 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Uzbekistan Super League: 2.50 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-2-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Termez Surkhon (12th) has 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses this season, and in the last 5 matches records a 2-1-2 run with an average of 1.4 points per game. Mash'al (16th) has lost all 8 matches this season and all of their last 5 matches, collecting 0 points in that span. In attack the hosts have scored 6 goals this season (5 in the last 5) and average 0.75 goals per home game, while Mash'al have 2 goals this season (2 in the last 5) and average 0.5 goals away. Hosts display an average home xG of 1.29 versus the visitors' away xG of 0.86, and defensively Termez concedes 1.25 goals per home game (xG against 1.49) compared to Mash'al's 2.25 goals conceded away (xG against 2.05). Additionally Termez average 12.75 shots (2.25 on target) and 56% possession at home versus the visitors' 7 shots (2 on target) and 35% possession, so given the form advantage and superior defensive metrics I predict a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I assess BTTS - No as more likely, assigning 65% to 'No' and 35% to 'Yes'. Termez Surkhon at home has a season goals-per-game of 0.0 and a season BTTS rate of 0.0%, with a shots-to-goal conversion of 0.0% despite a home xG of 1.31 and an average of 10.25 shots with 3.5 on target per match — they create chances but finishing is abysmal. Mash'al averages 0.5 goals away this season, scored 2 goals in the last 5 matches (0.4 avg), has an away xG of 0.86 and averages 7.0 shots with 2.0 on target, so the visitors’ threat is limited. Although Mash'al concedes heavily — 2.25 goals against away on average and an xG against of 2.05 — the league-level BTTS is 50.0% with clean sheets at 55.0% and a home advantage of 8.0%, which together increase the likelihood of at least one clean sheet in the match. Considering the home team’s zero season goals average (0.0) and the visitors’ low away efficiency (0.5 season, 0.4 last 5), I regard 'No' as the stronger signal and assign it 65%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The combined xG for both teams is approximately 2.80: Termez Surkhon has xG_for = 1.31, Mash'al xG_for = 0.86, and accounting for xG_against (away = 2.05, home = 1.38) yields expected goals of 1.68 for the home side and 1.12 for the visitors. A Poisson model with a mean of 2.80 gives about a 77% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 53% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and about 31% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Season statistics show a divergence: Termez has 0% matches over 2.5, while Mash'al has 75%, but both teams have 100% of matches over 0.5, and the away side has 100% over 1.5, which supports a scenario of at least 2 goals. Considering the combined xG of 2.80, the home attacking activity (on average 10.25 shots and 3.5 on target) and the fact both teams regularly score, I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal; Over 2.5 remains moderately likely.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at the break and a Termez Surkhon victory at full-time (X/1). A half-time draw appears plausible: in the last 5 matches the home side were level at the break in 2 of 5, and the visitors likewise in 2 of 5, while the home team led at half-time in only 1 of 5 and the visitors in 0 of 5. I expect Termez to dominate the second half because their xG per match is 1.31 versus Mash'al’s 0.86; they average 10.25 shots with 3.5 on target compared to the opponents’ 7.0 shots and 2.0 on target. In the last 5 matches the home side have won 2 of 5 while the visitors have not won. The visitors concede 2.25 goals per match on average and have an xG against of 2.05, which, combined with a form of 'lllll', increases the risk that Termez will decide the match in the second half. Therefore I back X/1 — a draw after 45 minutes but a home win by full-time (the strongest signal given xG 1.31 vs 0.86, 10.25 vs 7.0 shots and 2/5 vs 0/5 recent wins).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Termez Surkhon | Mash'al | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 19% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.09 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Termez Surkhon is 200% better for: goals scored per match.
0.75 goals / match - Termez Surkhon · 0.25 goals / match - Mash'al
Termez Surkhon is 36% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.38 goals / match - Termez Surkhon · 1.88 goals / match - Mash'al
Termez Surkhon scores in 50% of matches (4 of 8 matches), while Mash'al keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 8 matches).
Mash'al scores in 25% of matches (2 of 8 matches), while Termez Surkhon keeps a clean sheet in 25% (2 of 8 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Termez Surkhon
Over / Under - Mash'al
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Termez Surkhon is 200% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.75 pts / match - Termez Surkhon · 0.25 pts / match - Mash'al
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Termez Surkhon - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Mash'al - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 100% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -5 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (2 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Termez Surkhon
Mash'al
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Uzbekistan Super League).
Teams vs league
| Termez Surkhon | Liga | Mash'al | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.13 | 2.50 | ▼ 2.13 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 38% | 50% | ▼ 25% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 38% | 48% | ▼ 38% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 25% | 27% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 63% | 69% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 75% | 80% | ▲ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Termez Surkhon 0 - 2 - 0 Mash'al. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Termez Surkhon vs Mash'al?
The Uzbekistan Super League match finished Termez Surkhon 2:1 Mash'al. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Termez Surkhon and Mash'al?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Termez Surkhon won 0, Mash'al won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 0.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Termez Surkhon vs Mash'al?
Termez Surkhon score 0.75 goals per game on average and Mash'al 0.25. The Uzbekistan Super League average is 2.50 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 38% of Termez Surkhon's matches and 25% of Mash'al's.
What form are Termez Surkhon and Mash'al in?
Over the last 5 games Termez Surkhon have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Mash'al 0-0-5 (0.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Termez Surkhon vs Mash'al?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.