Termez Surkhon vs Navbahor: match statistics

Navbahor sit 4th, while Termez Surkhon are 13th. Across the season, the visitors have scored 23 goals and conceded just 14, compared with 14 scored and 22 conceded by the hosts. Away from home, Navbahor win 50% of their matches, concede an average of 0.75 goals, and keep a clean sheet in 50% of games—an emphatic contrast to Termez’s home clean-sheet rate of just 14%. The visitors also create higher-quality chances: their average away xG stands at 1.63 compared with the hosts’ 1.35, while they register 4.88 shots on target per match versus 3.14. Termez have recently improved their results, winning 3 of their last 5 matches and conceding just 5 goals in that run, but they fail to score in 43% of home games. Navbahor have scored 13 goals across their last five matches, so despite the genuine draw risk, they should have the stronger chance of securing an away win.

The BTTS signal is positive, as Termez Surkhon has seen both teams score in 71% of matches, while Navbahor has achieved a 100% rate in this regard across its last five games. The hosts score an average of 1.86 goals per match, while the visitors have averaged as many as 2.6 across their last five appearances, with xG figures of 1.69 and 1.95 respectively. Termez concede 1.14 goals on average, while their last five matches have produced 1.0 goal per game for the opposition, giving Navbahor a realistic route to scoring. Navbahor does have a 50% clean-sheet rate for the season and concedes only 0.75 goals on average, but Termez register 5.43 shots on target per match and have failed to score in only 14% of their games. The combination of the visitors’ strong current attacking efficiency and the hosts’ offensive consistency points more towards BTTS - Yes than a scenario in which either team fails to score.

Navbahor keeps a clean sheet in 50% of matches and concedes just 0.75 goals per game across the season, clearly limiting the hosts’ attacking potential despite their average of 1.86 goals scored. Termez has a weaker defense, conceding 1.14 goals per game, while Navbahor has scored as many as 2.6 goals in its last five appearances, with an xG of 1.95. At the same time, both teams very rarely feature in matches with at least four goals: this occurred in 29% of Termez’s matches and 0% of Navbahor’s. The league average is 2.64 goals, while the projected 2.70 goals points to a scoreline closer to 1:1, 1:2 or 2:1 than to an open, high-scoring game. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5, supported by a combined 73% probability and the visitors’ particularly solid defense.

The strongest signal points to Navbahor leading at the break: the visitors took the lead in 4 of their last 5 matches, averaging 1.6 goals in the first halves. Over the same five-match period, Termez scored just 0.2 goals before half-time and were behind after 45 minutes in 2 of those 5 matches. Navbahor also have a solid defensive foundation across the season, conceding an average of 0.75 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in 50% of their games, which increases the likelihood of them maintaining their advantage. The hosts are dangerous after the interval, having scored 1.2 goals in the second halves of their last five matches, so the draw and turnaround scenarios remain relevant; however, the visitors’ stronger current first-half form points to a 2/2 outcome.