Tersana vs Raya Ghazl: match statistics

I predict a home win (1). Tersana averages 1.14 goals per home match with an average xG of 1.41, while Raya Ghazl averages only 0.23 goals on the road with xG 1.18. The hosts register 10.46 shots per game with 4.77 on target at home, versus Raya Ghazl’s 8.73 shots and 3.0 on target away; with shot conversion rates of 11% vs 2% Tersana both creates and converts chances markedly better. Defensively the teams are comparable (Tersana concedes 1.00 goals at home, Raya Ghazl 1.08 away), but the visitors have 77% of away games without scoring versus 43% for the hosts, which undermines their offensive potential. Recent form over the last five matches is poor for both (0.4 pts/match for Tersana vs 0.8 pts/match for Raya Ghazl), however the lack of away wins (away win rate = 0%) and Raya Ghazl’s negative away goal difference (-11) favor the home side. Therefore I assign Tersana a 65% chance to win, 20% for a draw and 15% for an away win.

I forecast BTTS - No. Raya Ghazl have very low away offense: only 0.23 goals per game and away BTTS 23% on the season (last 5: 20%). Tersana score 1.0 at home and have season BTTS 60% (last 5: 60%), but they concede 1.4 at home and have conceded 9 goals in the last 5 (1.8 per game), showing home defensive vulnerability. xG is similar (1.17 for Tersana vs 1.18 for Raya), however Raya’s shot conversion is only 2% versus Tersana’s 12%, so the visitors create chances but fail to convert. Additionally Raya have 38% clean sheets on the season (Tersana 20%), and league BTTS frequency is 39%, which all together favors a single scorer rather than Goal/Goal. Therefore I rate ~70% No and ~30% Yes.

I calculated expected goals as the average of offensive xG and opponents’ xG: Tersana 1.28 (offensive xG 1.17 and xG against 1.39), Raya Ghazl 1.39 (offensive xG 1.18 and xG against 1.59), total 2.67 goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.67 yields probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) ≈75%, at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) ≈50% and at least 4 goals (Over 3.5) ≈28%. Team data support this view: Tersana have 80% of home matches with ≥2 goals and have scored 6 goals in the last 5 matches (1.2 avg), while Raya have a very low scoring rate 0.23 goals this season with xG 1.18 and a conversion rate of 2%. Additionally, Tersana concede 1.4 goals per match and season BTTS is 60% for hosts vs 23% for guests, so the expected total ~2.67 goals gives a clear edge on the Over 1.5 line; therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

Both teams frequently draw at half-time: the home side drew in 60% of matches and the visitors in 69%, yielding approximately a 64% chance of a HT draw; additionally, the home team averages 0.33 goals by the break and the visitors 0.08, so the first half is likely to be low-scoring. In the second half the home team is clearly more dangerous — home second-half goals average 0.67 versus 0.15 for the away team, and average goals in second halves are 1.6 for homes versus 1.0 for guests. The home team collected 21 points in matches with goals after the break, while the visitors only 6 points, and the visitors have yet to record a win this season (0% wins), which reduces their chances of a full-time victory. Both teams’ xG is similar (1.17 vs 1.18), but the home conversion rate of 12% versus the visitors’ 2% and the fact that the hosts scored six goals between the 76th and 90th minutes support a scenario of a draw at half-time and a home turnaround by full-time (X/1).