Teuta Durrës vs AF Elbasani: match statistics

AF Elbasani sit 2nd in the table while Teuta are 6th; visitors have 15 wins versus 8 and have scored 39 goals compared to the hosts' 27. In the last 5 matches Elbasani have scored 7 goals and average 1.6 points per game (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), whereas Teuta have 5 goals and only 0.8 points per game (1-1-3). Chance quality is similar (attacking xG 1.21 for the visitors vs 1.23 for the hosts), but Elbasani are more efficient: conversion 15% vs 11%, 3.8 shots on target per game vs 3, and a lower risk of being shut out (FTS 13% vs 27%). Teuta’s defense at home looks better by xG against (0.96) and hosts concede 1.0 goal per home match on average, while visitors concede 1.2 on the road and have a higher xG against (1.64), indicating some defensive vulnerabilities for Elbasani. In summary, the visitors’ edge is supported by a better win record, higher efficiency and higher average goals scored per match (1.33 away vs 1.07 home), therefore I predict an AF Elbasani win.

Teuta at home concedes only 0.5 goals per game this season and keeps a clean sheet in 56% of matches, while the league overall sees 67% of games ending with at least one clean sheet — a significant factor against BTTS. AF Elbasani averages 1.33 goals per game and has a seasonal BTTS rate of 60%; in the last 5 matches they score 1.4 goals on average, so they can find the net even against stronger defenses. In xG terms the hosts generate 1.44 xG with xG_against 1.1, while the visitors have xG_for 1.21 and xG_against 1.64, indicating Elbasani creates chances but Teuta seasonally limits conceded opportunities effectively. Although Teuta has conceded 8 goals in the last 5 matches (1.6 per game), the hosts’ 56% clean sheet rate and the low league BTTS frequency (45%) prevail; therefore I assign a higher probability to the “No” (No Goal/clean sheet expected) scenario — 60% vs 40% for BTTS (BTTS - Yes).

xG analysis indicates a combined value of about 2.70 goals: Teuta has xG 1.44 while Elbasani concedes an average 1.64 xG (about 1.54 expected goals for the home side), whereas Elbasani has xG 1.21 with Teuta defending at 1.10 xG (≈1.16 for the away side). Seasonal figures support a moderate number of goals — Over 1.5 occurred in 56% of Teuta’s matches and 60% of Elbasani’s, while Over 2.5 is 31%/47%; in the last 5 matches Over 2.5 rose to 40% for Teuta and 60% for Elbasani. At the same time Teuta have a very solid home defense — conceding on average 0.5 goals per match and keeping 56% clean sheets, with 0% of matches above 3.5 goals, which limits the risk of a very high-scoring outcome. A Poisson model with lambda=2.70 yields estimates: Over 1.5 ≈75%, Over 2.5 ≈51% and Over 3.5 ≈29%, therefore the strongest and safest signal from the data is Over 1.5.

I predict a draw at half-time because the hosts were level at the break in 13 matches (81%) and kept a clean sheet at half-time in 94% of games; on average they score 0.38 goals by half-time and concede only 0.06. After the break I expect Teuta Durrës to win — the home side win 56% of their matches at home with just 6% defeats, and in second halves they score on average 0.81 goals and register 1.25 goals after the break, which has translated into 26 points and 1.63 points per game in second halves. Additionally, the advantage in quality of chances is with the hosts: xG is 1.44 versus 1.21 for the visitors, while opponents generate xG of 1.64 against the visitors whereas the hosts concede 1.10, suggesting greater chances for Teuta to produce a turnaround after the break. In light of these figures the strongest HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time and a home victory (X/1).