Teuta Durrës vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë: match statistics

The favorite is Egnatia, sitting 3rd versus Teuta's 9th, with 16 wins this season against Teuta's 8 and 40 goals scored versus the hosts' 29. Away, Egnatia registers more shots on target (3.71 per match vs 2.82 for Teuta at home), enjoys higher possession (56% vs 51%) and a superior average xG per game (1.31 vs 1.18), indicating better quality chances. Teuta at home draws more often — 47% of home matches end level — and averages 1.00 goal with a lower share of clean-sheet failures (29% vs 41% of Egnatia’s away games without scoring), which increases the likelihood of a scoring draw. In the last 5 matches Egnatia has scored 3 goals and averages 0.8 points per game, while Teuta has only 2 goals and 0.2 points, with both teams having conceded 7 goals in that period. Given the advantage in wins (16 vs 8), higher xG (1.31 vs 1.18) and slightly more reliable away defense (0.94 vs 1.06 goals conceded), the visitors are more likely to prevail, though a draw remains a realistic outcome.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are low: Teuta has BTTS 33% and Egnatia 29%, versus a league average of 46%. The high rate of clean sheets further supports a No Goal outcome — Teuta 44% and Egnatia 41%, and league-wide 65% of matches end with a clean sheet for one of the teams. Offensively the hosts look better (1.5 goals and xG 1.6 per match with 11% conversion), while Egnatia has 0.76 goals and xG 1.31 with 8% conversion, meaning the visitors convert chances into goals less often. In the last 5 matches BTTS occurred in 40% for Teuta and only 20% for Egnatia, and both teams conceded 7 goals across that run (1.4 per game on average), which further favors a no BTTS scenario. Considering 33% vs 29% BTTS, 44% and 41% CS rates, and Egnatia’s poor conversion, I prefer 'No' (No Goal) with a probability of 70% versus 30% for 'Yes' (BTTS - Yes).

The model based on xG and goal averages projects a total of 2.55 goals in the match: 1.39 for Teuta Durrës and 1.16 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë. The home side have xG_for 1.60 and score on average 1.50 goals from 13.28 shots and 4.78 on target, while the visitors have xG_for 1.31 and 0.76 goals from 9.82 shots and 3.71 on target, giving Teuta the offensive edge. Seasonal indicators show Teuta had 67% of matches over 1.5 goals, Egnatia 47%, and the league average is 2.15 goals per match, which supports a scenario of at least 2 goals. With an expected total of 2.55 the Poisson distribution yields P(>=2) ≈72%, P(>=3) ≈47% and P(>=4) ≈25% (hence over1.5 72%/28%, over2.5 47%/53%, over3.5 25%/75%). The strongest play signal is over 1.5 (72% vs 28%); over 2.5 is marginal and over 3.5 has low chances, so I recommend over 1.5.

Teuta is the favorite for the full-time result: at home they average 1.5 goals per match versus Egnatia’s 0.76, have a higher xG (1.6 vs 1.31) and generate more shots (13.28 vs 9.82), all favoring their victory. At half-time matches of both teams are often balanced — Teuta led at the break in 6 matches (33%), Egnatia also in 6 (35%), and half-time draws occur in roughly 28–35% of cases, so a draw at the break is realistic. The key signal is Teuta’s second half: on average 1.39 goals in the second half, a positive second-half goal differential of +13 and winning 56% of second halves, and notably Teuta have scored 10 goals in minutes 76–90 versus Egnatia’s 1 in that interval, suggesting a turnaround after the break. The hosts also have higher average points (1.78 vs 1.47), better shot conversion (11% vs 8%) and more shots on target (4.78 vs 3.71), therefore the strongest scenario from the data is a draw at half-time and a Teuta win at full-time (X/1).