The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town: match statistics
The New Saints decisively dominate this encounter, sitting at the top of the table with an impressive record of 20 wins this season and a streak of 5 consecutive victories. The hosts demonstrate exceptional efficiency at home with an 85% win rate, averaging 3.23 goals scored per match while conceding only 0.85. Caernarfon Town, despite a decent league position, is clearly inferior in quality – their last 5 matches include just 1 win and they show poor form (1.2 points per match). The difference in possession (69% vs 52%), shots on target (7.31 vs 4.15), and xG (2.33 vs 1.47) clearly indicates the hosts' superiority. The goal difference (+31 for TNS in home matches compared to +7 for Caernarfon away) further confirms that The New Saints should secure a comfortable victory in this fixture.
The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
The New Saints played Caernarfon Town in Welsh Premier League (Wales). The match was played on 20 February 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
The New Saints: 5-0-0, 3.00 points/match. Caernarfon Town: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
The New Saints scores 2.72 and concedes 0.76 goals per match. Caernarfon Town scores 1.80 and concedes 1.40. League average: 3.01 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: The New Saints 36%, Caernarfon Town 68%. Over 2.5: The New Saints 64%, Caernarfon Town 56%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
The New Saints has higher xG: 2.13 vs 1.54. The New Saints: 16.7 shots per match, Caernarfon Town: 12.6.
Match halves
The New Saints: half-time lead 68%, second-half goals 1.56. Caernarfon Town: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 1.24.
Goals by minute
The New Saints: 46-60 (16 goals). Caernarfon Town: 76-90+ (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Welsh Premier League: 3.01 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The New Saints decisively dominate this encounter, sitting at the top of the table with an impressive record of 20 wins this season and a streak of 5 consecutive victories. The hosts demonstrate exceptional efficiency at home with an 85% win rate, averaging 3.23 goals scored per match while conceding only 0.85. Caernarfon Town, despite a decent league position, is clearly inferior in quality – their last 5 matches include just 1 win and they show poor form (1.2 points per match). The difference in possession (69% vs 52%), shots on target (7.31 vs 4.15), and xG (2.33 vs 1.47) clearly indicates the hosts' superiority. The goal difference (+31 for TNS in home matches compared to +7 for Caernarfon away) further confirms that The New Saints should secure a comfortable victory in this fixture.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| The New Saints | Caernarfon Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
The New Saints is 150% better for: last-5 form.
3 pts / match - The New Saints · 1.2 pts / match - Caernarfon Town
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
The New Saints is 51% better for: goals scored per match.
2.72 goals / match - The New Saints · 1.8 goals / match - Caernarfon Town
The New Saints is 84% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.76 goals / match - The New Saints · 1.4 goals / match - Caernarfon Town
The New Saints scores in 92% of matches (23 of 25 matches), while Caernarfon Town keeps a clean sheet in 16% (4 of 25 matches).
Caernarfon Town scores in 80% of matches (20 of 25 matches), while The New Saints keeps a clean sheet in 60% (15 of 25 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - The New Saints
Over / Under - Caernarfon Town
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
The New Saints is 107% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.24 pts / match - The New Saints · 1.08 pts / match - Caernarfon Town
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
The New Saints - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 68% of matches and wins 80%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Caernarfon Town - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +7 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (16 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
The New Saints
Caernarfon Town
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Welsh Premier League).
Teams vs league
| The New Saints | Liga | Caernarfon Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.48 | 3.01 | ▲ 3.20 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 36% | 51% | ▲ 68% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 64% | 55% | • 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 60% | 29% | ▼ 16% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 80% | 75% | • 76% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 80% | 75% | ▲ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): The New Saints 2 - 0 - 0 Caernarfon Town. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town?
The Welsh Premier League match finished The New Saints 2:1 Caernarfon Town. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between The New Saints and Caernarfon Town?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches The New Saints won 2, Caernarfon Town won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town?
The New Saints score 2.72 goals per game on average and Caernarfon Town 1.80. The Welsh Premier League average is 3.01 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 36% of The New Saints's matches and 68% of Caernarfon Town's.
What form are The New Saints and Caernarfon Town in?
Over the last 5 games The New Saints have a 5-0-0 record (3.00 points per game) and Caernarfon Town 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town?
The statistical background for The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.