The New Saints vs Flint Town United: match statistics

The New Saints are top of the table and remain unbeaten after 7 matches, with a record of 6 wins and 1 draw, while Flint Town United have yet to win a game and have lost 6 of their 7 matches. The hosts have won their last five matches, scoring 15 goals in the process, whereas the visitors have managed just 2 goals over the same period and suffered 4 defeats. At home, The New Saints average 2.25 goals, 19.5 shots and 8.75 shots on target per match, with an xG of 2.36, clearly surpassing Flint Town United’s away figures of 0.75 goals and an xG of 1.32. The league leaders’ defence concedes just 0.25 goals per home match and keeps a clean sheet in 75% of games, while the visitors allow opponents an average of 2 goals and an xG of 1.94. The possession difference—73% for the hosts versus 42% for the visitors—should translate into clear control for The New Saints and a high probability of victory.

The scenario in which both teams fail to score is more likely primarily due to Flint Town United’s poor current scoring form: the visitors have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 per game. The New Saints have been very solid defensively during this period, conceding an average of only 0.6 goals, while their average xG allowed to opponents stands at just 0.83. Both teams recorded BTTS in only 40% of their last five appearances, while the hosts won all 5 matches and Flint Town United suffered 4 defeats. The hosts should create chances, having recently recorded an xG of 2.42, whereas the visitors’ limited attacking potential increases the likelihood of a result in which at least one side fails to score. The season-long BTTS figures of 67% for the hosts and 50% for the visitors are less convincing than the clear contrast in the current form of the two teams.

The New Saints are in excellent form: they have scored 15 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 3.0 per game, while conceding just 3. Over the same period, Flint Town United have scored only 2 goals and conceded 8, with their average xG against standing at a high 1.72. The hosts are currently creating chances worth an average of 2.42 xG, while the visitors have failed to keep a clean sheet, as have their opponents. At least 2 goals were scored in 67% of the hosts’ matches and 75% of the visitors’ games, making Over 1.5 goals the clear highest-probability option. The Over 2.5 line is also realistic, but Flint Town United’s low scoring rate of 0.4 goals per game in their last five appearances limits its edge over Over 1.5.

The New Saints have won all of their last five matches, scoring an average of 3.0 goals and conceding just 0.6, while Flint Town United have managed only 0.4 goals per game and lost four of their five most recent fixtures. The home side’s advantage is already evident before half-time: they led at the break in 60% of their recent matches, averaging 1.2 first-half goals and conceding only 0.2, while the visitors failed to score before the break on every occasion and were behind at half-time in 80% of cases. Flint Town also have a weak defensive record, conceding an average of 1.6 goals across their last five matches, while their broader average xGA stands at 1.94. After the interval, the hosts remain highly dangerous, scoring an average of 1.8 goals in their last five second halves while conceding just 0.4. The most likely outcome is therefore The New Saints leading at half-time and maintaining their winning advantage until the final whistle.