The New Saints vs Haverfordwest County: match statistics

Both teams have an identical record of 0.8 points per game across their last five matches, with each recording 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats. The New Saints have scored just 2 goals during this period, but their defense has conceded only 5, compared with the 8 goals allowed by Haverfordwest County. The visitors are clearly more effective in attack, having scored 7 goals in their last five matches; however, their leaky defense limits the advantage provided by their offensive output. In the current season, the hosts began with a draw, while Haverfordwest County opened with a defeat, which slightly favors The New Saints. Given the similarly poor form of both teams and the limited amount of home-and-away data, a draw is the most likely outcome.

The strongest signal is the low BTTS rate in the last five matches for both teams, at 20% each. The New Saints scored only 2 goals during this period, averaging 0.4 per match, and failed to score in 100% of the available season data. Haverfordwest County found the net more often, averaging 1.4 goals across their last five matches, but the hosts conceded just 1.0 goal per game, limiting the likelihood of an away goal. Although the xG figures from the last five matches are similar and fairly high—1.46 for the hosts and 1.62 for the visitors—The New Saints’ actual lack of efficiency strongly supports the view that at least one team will fail to score. The league does have a BTTS rate of 63%, but the hosts’ current scoring form is a stronger match-specific argument for BTTS - No.

Data from the last five matches indicates moderate goalscoring potential: the hosts scored an average of just 0.4 goals, while the visitors averaged 1.4. In total, The New Saints scored 2 and conceded 5 goals in these matches, whereas Haverfordwest County recorded 7 goals scored and 8 conceded. Although both teams’ average xG figures are relatively high—1.46 for the hosts and 1.62 for the visitors—matches featuring Over 2.5 goals occurred in only 20% of the hosts’ last five games and 40% of the visitors’ games. The projected total of 2.36 goals remains clearly below the 3.5 line, making Under 3.5 the outcome best supported by the results trends and the most likely selection.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Haverfordwest County win at full-time, as The New Saints have failed to score in the first half of each of their last five matches and went into the break level in 60% of them. During this period, the visitors averaged 0.6 goals before half-time, while the hosts conceded an average of 0.6 goals in that phase, which supports a cautious but not goalless opening. After the break, Haverfordwest average 0.8 goals, and their matches produced a second-half goal in 100% of their last five fixtures. In addition, the visitors have clearly superior current attacking form across the full match, averaging 1.4 goals compared with the hosts’ 0.4, making a turnaround in their favour after half-time more likely than a The New Saints win.