ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs Albirex Niigata: match statistics

Albirex Niigata have clearly enjoyed the stronger run of form: they have collected 7 points from their last five matches, recording 2 wins and 2 defeats, while ThespaKusatsu Gunma have managed just 3 points from 1 victory. The hosts conceded as many as 13 goals during this period, an average of 2.6 per match, compared with just 6 goals conceded by the visitors. ThespaKusatsu did score 7 goals across their five outings, but four defeats highlight their inability to protect favourable results defensively. Albirex have scored only 3 goals, so the risk of a draw remains significant; however, their -3 goal difference is considerably better than the hosts’ -6. With limited seasonal data available, the visitors’ more solid defensive record and higher points tally over the last five matches support an away win.

The data from the last five matches sends a mixed signal: ThespaKusatsu Gunma recorded BTTS - Yes in 80% of matches, while Albirex Niigata did so in only 20%. The hosts conceded heavily, averaging 2.6 goals per match, which supports the prospect of an away goal, but Albirex scored just 0.6 goals per game during this period and lacked consistent attacking output. Gunma scored 7 goals in five matches, while Albirex conceded only 6, averaging 1.2 per appearance, which limits confidence in a home goal. Although Albirex's xG stands at 1.44, their actual tally is just 3 goals, making the scenario in which at least one team fails to score more likely. Therefore, BTTS - No is the more probable outcome; this does not automatically mean a 0-0 draw, only that at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

The most reliable signal is Over 1.5 goals, as Gunma averaged 1.4 goals scored in their last five matches but conceded as many as 2.6 goals per game. Albirex scored only 0.6 goals per match, although their average xG stood at 1.44, indicating greater attacking potential than their actual goal tally suggests. The hosts allowed opponents an xG of 1.63, so the visitors should have favorable conditions to improve their finishing. Gunma’s matches went Over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last five appearances, while the same outcome occurred in 40% of Albirex’s matches. The projected total of 2.75 goals gives a clear edge to Over 1.5, although the 2.5 line remains considerably more balanced.

The available data from the last five matches clearly rates Albirex more highly: the visitors averaged 1.4 points per match, compared with just 0.6 for ThespaKusatsu. The hosts lost four of their last five matches and conceded as many as 2.6 goals per game, while Albirex conceded an average of 1.2. Before the break, both teams scored just 0.2 goals on average, and Albirex were level at half-time in 60% of their matches, supporting a cautious scenario with no decision after the first half. After the interval, Gunma continued to concede an average of 1.2 goals, and the hosts’ weaker defence should increase the visitors’ chances of turning the game in their favour. The most likely outcome is therefore a draw at half-time and an Albirex win at full-time: X/2.