Thionville Lusitanos vs Caen: match statistics

Caen sit 1st, while Thionville Lusitanos are second, and the visitors have a clearly superior record over their last five matches: 3 wins, a draw and just one defeat. During this period, Caen scored 11 goals—nearly twice as many as the hosts’ 6—and conceded only 6, compared with Thionville’s 13. The hosts have lost 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 0.8 points per game, whereas Caen averaged 2 points. Both teams began the current season with wins to nil, but Caen won 4:0, while Thionville prevailed 3:0. Caen’s superior current form and significantly more stable defence over the larger sample point towards an away win.

Recent form points to a goalscoring scenario at both ends: Caen have averaged 2.2 goals in their last 5 matches, while Thionville Lusitanos have conceded as many as 2.6 goals per game during that period. The hosts have scored only 1.2 goals per match, but Caen have allowed opponents an average of 1.2 goals, so their chances of scoring remain realistic. The quality indicators are also fairly even, with average xG from the last five appearances standing at 1.34 for Thionville and 1.19 for Caen. BTTS has landed in 40% of the hosts’ last five matches and 60% of the visitors’ games, while Thionville’s particularly poor recent defensive record shifts the prediction towards BTTS - Yes. Seasonal data is very limited and shows 0% BTTS for the hosts, so greater weight should be given to the current five-match run.

Thionville’s last five matches produced an average of 3.8 goals, with the team scoring 1.2 and conceding as many as 2.6. Caen’s matches have also been open, with the team averaging 2.2 goals scored, while their games finished Over 2.5 goals in 80% of cases. In the hosts’ last five matches, the 2.5-goal line was exceeded in all 5 games, clearly above the league average of 44%. At the same time, both sides’ xG figures are more moderate—1.34 for Thionville and 1.19 for Caen—so the projected total of 2.90 goals does not justify an equally strong position on Over 2.5. The strongest signal is Over 1.5, as the hosts’ weak defense and Caen’s recently effective attack significantly increase the likelihood of at least two goals.

Recent form clearly favors Caen: the visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches and are averaging 2.2 goals, while Thionville have won only once, score 1.2 goals and concede as many as 2.6. At half-time, Caen most often drew, doing so in 40% of matches, while the hosts have also failed to establish a consistent advantage, leading and trailing after 45 minutes in 40% of games each. The second half is crucial, with Caen averaging 1.6 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded, compared with Thionville’s 0.8 scored and 1.6 conceded. The hosts do have a single home result of 4-0 this season and a 100% win rate, but this is based on a one-match sample, making it far less reliable than the last five performances of both teams. A Half-Time/Full-Time draw followed by Caen taking the advantage after the interval is therefore the most likely outcome, corresponding to the X/2 scenario.