Thionville Lusitanos vs Paris 13 Atletico: match statistics

Thionville Lusitanos lead the table after three consecutive wins, while Paris 13 Atletico sit eighth with a record of 2 wins and 1 defeat. The hosts have won 100% of their home matches, scoring an average of 4 goals from 8 shots on target, whereas the visitors average 0 goals away from home and have failed to score in 100% of such fixtures. The difference in attacking quality is also reflected in the average xG: 1.55 for Thionville at home compared with 1.08 for Paris 13 away. However, the hosts’ defence is far from flawless, conceding an average of 3 goals and keeping no clean sheets, which makes a draw a realistic alternative. Despite this, the visitors’ poor attacking efficiency, with an average of just 3 shots on target per away match, strongly favours a Thionville win.

The strongest signal for BTTS - No comes from Paris 13 Atletico’s very poor attacking output: in away data, the team averages 0.0 goals, failed to score in 100% of such matches, and has a BTTS rate of 0%. Thionville Lusitanos defend solidly at home, conceding an average of just 0.5 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 50% of matches. The hosts should create chances against an away defence that allows an average of 2.0 goals and 1.33 xG, but their own xG is only 0.91. The last five matches for both teams produced goals for both sides in 40% of games each, while Paris 13 Atletico scored just 0.8 goals per match during this period. With league BTTS at only 33%, the more likely scenario is that at least one team, primarily the visitors, fails to score.

Thionville Lusitanos average 1.5 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded at home, while Paris 13 Atletico have yet to score away and concede an average of 2.0 goals. The visitors have failed to score in 100% of their away matches so far, whereas the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games, clearly limiting their projected output to 0.55 goals. Thionville’s attacking potential is genuine, as shown by an average of 2.2 goals scored across their last five appearances, although the hosts’ season-long xG stands at just 0.91. Neither team has recorded a match with at least four goals, and both sides have registered 100% of their matches below 3.5 goals. The strongest signal therefore points to Under 3.5 goals, as a one-sided home result or a narrow victory is more likely than an open game producing four goals.

Thionville Lusitanos have won both of their home matches so far, scoring an average of 1.5 goals and conceding just 0.5, while Paris 13 Atletico have a 0% away win rate, have failed to score, and have conceded an average of 2.0 goals on the road. The hosts were leading at the break in 2 of their 2 home matches, averaging 1.0 goal scored and conceding none before half-time; the visitors were trailing 0–2 at half-time in their away match. In addition, the visitors have failed to score in 100% of their away matches, while Thionville have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their home appearances. Although the last five matches suggest some degree of inconsistency, the hosts have scored 2.2 goals per game compared with 0.8 for Paris 13, and have won 60% of those matches after half-time. The most logical HT/FT scenario, therefore, is Thionville taking the lead before the break and maintaining it until the final whistle: 1/1.