Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan: match statistics

Beijing Guoan have a clear edge in the quality of chances created away from home, with an average xG of 1.57 compared with Tianjin Teda’s 1.13 at home. The visitors also register more shots on target (5.0 per match versus 3.3 for the hosts) and retain possession for longer, averaging 60% compared with their opponents’ 47%. However, Tianjin are in excellent recent form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches and conceded only 4 goals during that run, meaning their home advantage limits the extent of the visitors’ superiority. Beijing remain unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 3 wins and 2 draws while scoring 11 goals, and they lose just 22% of their away fixtures. Beijing’s high 44% draw rate away from home increases the likelihood of a share of the points, but their greater control of the game and stronger attacking numbers marginally point towards an away win.

The “Yes” selection is supported by a seasonal BTTS rate of 67% for Tianjin Teda and an identical 67% for Beijing Guoan, both above the league average of 63%. The hosts average 2.00 goals with an xG of 1.95, while the visitors average 1.56 goals with an xG of 1.57, meaning both teams consistently create chances of sufficient quality to score. Tianjin averages 18.42 shots and 5.67 shots on target per match, while Beijing records 12.89 attempts and 5.00 on target, strengthening the prospect of goals at both ends. In their last five matches, Beijing had BTTS in 80% of games, with both teams scoring 2.2 goals per match; although Tianjin conceded only 0.8 goals during this period, the visitors’ attacking potential points to them breaking through this defence.

Tianjin score an average of 2.00 goals per match, while Beijing average 1.56, against a league average of 3.04 goals. In their last five matches, both teams scored 2.2 goals per game, netting 11 goals each in total. The Over 1.5 line was covered in 92% of Tianjin’s matches and 78% of Beijing’s, providing very strong support for at least two goals. The hosts generate 1.95 xG, while the visitors produce 1.57, with both defenses conceding more than a goal per match on average: 1.25 and 1.33 respectively. Over 1.5 offers the strongest edge, while caution is warranted on the 3.5 line, as only 33% of matches involving either team exceeded four goals.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Beijing Guoan were level at the break in 67% of their matches, compared with 42% for Tianjin Teda. The first halves of both teams are typically cautious: the hosts average 0.75 goals in the opening 45 minutes, while the visitors average just 0.33, and they keep a clean sheet before half-time in 75% and 78% of matches, respectively. After the break, the advantage should shift towards Tianjin, who average 1.25 goals in second halves and as many as 1.8 over their last five matches, while conceding just 0.6. The hosts also have a higher season-long xG, 1.95 compared with 1.57, as well as a clear advantage in shots attempted, 18.42 to 12.89. The X/1 scenario is further supported by Tianjin’s form: they have won four of their last five matches and averaged 2.4 points per match in their second halves.