Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun: match statistics

I predict an away win ('2'), as Yunnan Yukun holds a clear seasonal advantage: 3rd in the table vs 14th for Tianjin Teda, 40 goals scored vs 26, and higher average xG per match 1.56 vs 1.04. The visitors generate significantly more chances — on average 14.8 shots and 5.0 shots on target per game vs 9.11 and 3.11 for the hosts — providing greater goal-scoring potential. Tianjin, however, has shown recent defensive solidity: only 2 goals conceded in the last 5 matches (0.4 per game), 33% clean sheets at home and an average of 2.0 points in the last 5, while Yunnan conceded 13 goals in their last 5 and concedes on average 2.0 goals away. The hosts are more efficient in conversion at home (15% vs 12% for the visitors) and have scored 8 goals in the last 5 matches vs 14 for the visitors, but the xG advantage (1.56 vs 1.04) and number of shots on target (5.0 vs 3.11) favor Yunnan. Considering league position, the xG gap and chance-creation intensity (14.8 vs 9.11), I estimate probabilities of 30% for the home win, 25% for a draw and 45% for the away win.

I back BTTS - Yes (80%) because Tianjin have a season BTTS rate of 70% and Yunnan 90%, versus a league average of 64%. Seasonal goal averages confirm an offensive profile: Tianjin score 2.2 and concede 1.8 per game, Yunnan score 1.8 and concede 2.0; season tallies 26-22 (Tianjin) vs 40-38 (Yunnan). The last 5 matches split the signal — hosts show only 20% BTTS and concede 0.4 on average, while visitors have 100% BTTS, score 2.8 and concede 2.6 per match, strongly increasing the chance Yunnan will score. Additionally, 90% of Tianjin matches and 80% of Yunnan matches finish over 2.5 goals, and season xG is 1.71 (Tianjin) vs 1.56 (Yunnan) with xG against 1.29/1.59, indicating chance creation from both sides. For these reasons, seasonal signals and the visitors’ attacking form outweigh the hosts’ recent defensive run, so the Both Teams To Score scenario is more likely (80% vs 20%).

xG and defensive metrics indicate approximately 1.66 expected goals for Tianjin and 1.42 for Yunnan, totaling ~3.08 goals (home xG 1.71 vs away 1.56; xG against 1.29 vs 1.59). With λ=3.08 the Poisson distribution yields about an 81% chance of Over 1.5 goals, ~59% for Over 2.5 and ~37% for Over 3.5. Seasonal indicators confirm an offensive profile: Over1.5 at 90% for both teams, Over2.5 at 90% for the home side and 80% for the away side, BTTS 70%/90%, and the home team averages 5.3 SOT with a 14% conversion rate (away 5.0 SOT and 12% conversion). Considering the above (xG 3.08, high rates of Over1.5/2.5 and strong BTTS), I recommend the Over line at 1.5 as the strongest signal; therefore I estimate Over1.5 at 88%, Over2.5 at 68% and Over3.5 at 37%.

Tianjin Teda holds a clear advantage in both offensive and defensive models: they score on average 2.2 goals per match versus Yunnan Yukun’s 1.8, with xG 1.71 vs 1.56 and lower xG conceded (1.29 vs 1.59), indicating superior chance creation and defensive solidity. At Half-Time the home side averages 1.1 goals scored and 0.7 conceded (scoredAVGHT_home 1.1, concededAVGHT_home 0.7), and in their last five matches they led at the break in 40% of games compared to 20% for the visitors, so Tianjin is more likely to hold the lead after 45 minutes. The hosts also have higher shot efficiency (14% vs 12%) and average 5.3 shots on target versus the opponents’ 5.0, which, combined with a 50% home win rate versus 30% for the away side, increases the probability of retaining the lead and securing the victory. Although both teams score frequently (BTTS 70% for the hosts, 90% for the visitors), the xG balance and HT statistics point toward a Half-Time/Full-Time scenario of the home leading at the break and winning the match, hence the 1/1 recommendation.