Tigres UANL vs Toluca: match statistics
Tigres UANL displays impressive home form with a 62% win rate and an average of 2.23 goals per match at home, supporting the home advantage. Additionally, Tigres maintains a 54% clean sheet rate in home matches and achieves a higher average xG (1.97 vs 1.43), indicating better quality of chances created. Toluca, despite good form in the last five matches (2.4 PPG), has weaker away results with 42% of matches without a goal scored and lower offensive efficiency (1.58 goals on average). The home team's goal difference in home matches (+19) significantly surpasses the visitors' away goal difference (+10). Considering all factors, a Tigres victory is predicted, although Toluca's solid defense (0.75 goals conceded away) may make the task difficult for the hosts.
Tigres UANL vs Toluca: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tigres UANL played Toluca in Liga MX (Mexico). The match was played on 18 January 2026. Final score: 0:0.
Current form
Tigres UANL: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Toluca: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tigres UANL scores 1.84 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Toluca scores 2.16 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.99 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tigres UANL 52%, Toluca 56%. Over 2.5: Tigres UANL 44%, Toluca 60%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Toluca has higher xG: 1.81 vs 1.76. Tigres UANL: 16.1 shots per match, Toluca: 17.4.
Match halves
Tigres UANL: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 1.12. Toluca: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 1.16.
Goals by minute
Tigres UANL: 46-60 (11 goals). Toluca: 46-60 (15 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga MX: 2.99 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-1. Average goals 3.67, BTTS 67%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Tigres UANL displays impressive home form with a 62% win rate and an average of 2.23 goals per match at home, supporting the home advantage. Additionally, Tigres maintains a 54% clean sheet rate in home matches and achieves a higher average xG (1.97 vs 1.43), indicating better quality of chances created. Toluca, despite good form in the last five matches (2.4 PPG), has weaker away results with 42% of matches without a goal scored and lower offensive efficiency (1.58 goals on average). The home team's goal difference in home matches (+19) significantly surpasses the visitors' away goal difference (+10). Considering all factors, a Tigres victory is predicted, although Toluca's solid defense (0.75 goals conceded away) may make the task difficult for the hosts.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tigres UANL | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Toluca is 71% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Tigres UANL · 2.4 pts / match - Toluca
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toluca is 17% better for: goals scored per match.
1.84 goals / match - Tigres UANL · 2.16 goals / match - Toluca
Tigres UANL scores in 84% of matches (21 of 25 matches), while Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 32% (8 of 25 matches).
Toluca scores in 76% of matches (19 of 25 matches), while Tigres UANL keeps a clean sheet in 40% (10 of 25 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tigres UANL
Over / Under - Toluca
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Toluca is 14% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.44 pts / match - Tigres UANL · 1.64 pts / match - Toluca
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tigres UANL - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 52%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Toluca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 64%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (15 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tigres UANL
Toluca
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| Tigres UANL | Liga | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.84 | 2.99 | ▲ 3.16 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 52% | 58% | ▼ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 44% | 55% | ▲ 60% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 40% | 24% | ▲ 32% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 56% | 73% | ▲ 76% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 78% | ▲ 84% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Tigres UANL 2 - 0 - 1 Toluca. Average goals 3.67, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tigres UANL vs Toluca?
The Liga MX match finished Tigres UANL 0:0 Toluca. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Tigres UANL and Toluca?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Tigres UANL won 2, Toluca won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Tigres UANL vs Toluca?
Tigres UANL score 1.84 goals per game on average and Toluca 2.16. The Liga MX average is 2.99 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 52% of Tigres UANL's matches and 56% of Toluca's.
What form are Tigres UANL and Toluca in?
Over the last 5 games Tigres UANL have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Toluca 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tigres UANL vs Toluca?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Tigres UANL vs Toluca: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.