Tiszakécske vs Diósgyőr: match statistics

Tiszakécske remain unbeaten this season, recording 1 win and 3 draws with a 6:5 goal difference, while Diósgyőr already have 1 defeat and have conceded 7 goals in three matches. At home, the hosts concede an average of just 0.5 goals per game and have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their appearances, a clear contrast to the 3.0 goals conceded away from home by the visitors. Diósgyőr are capable of creating chances, as shown by their average of 9 shots, 4.5 shots on target and an xG of 1.31 away from home, but they have failed to score in 50% of such matches. The visitors’ last five games produced as many as 14 goals conceded and just 0.8 points per game, while Tiszakécske averaged 1.2 points over the same period. The hosts’ defensive advantage, combined with Diósgyőr’s current defensive fragility, points to a slightly higher probability of a Tiszakécske victory.

The BTTS - Yes pick is supported by the fact that Tiszakécske has seen both teams score in 100% of its matches this season, while the figure stands at 80% across its last five games. Diósgyőr have not kept a single clean sheet and concede as many as 3.0 goals per match on average, including 2.8 in their last five outings, which significantly increases the hosts’ chances of scoring. Tiszakécske have also failed to keep a clean sheet, with an average xG against of 1.60, while Diósgyőr create an average of 1.31 xG. The hosts generate considerably more pressure, averaging 18 shots and 8 on target compared with the visitors’ 9 and 4.5, but the away side convert 17% of their attempts, making a single goal a realistic scenario. Although Diósgyőr average only 1.0 goal in their last five matches, the combination of defensive weaknesses and BTTS results above the league average of 55% supports the “yes” outcome.

Tiszakécske create plenty of chances at home, averaging xG 1.98 and 18 shots, including 8 on target, while Diósgyőr concede as many as 3.0 goals per away match. In their last five games, the hosts scored 1.4 goals per match, whereas the visitors allowed opponents to score 2.8, clearly strengthening the prospect of at least two goals. Both teams have so far recorded matches with a minimum of 2 goals in 100% of cases, while in their last five appearances, the percentage of games with at least 3 goals stood at 40% and 80%, respectively. The projected total of 3.00 goals exceeds the league average of 2.55, which is why Over 1.5 is the strongest pick, offering a substantial safety margin compared with more demanding lines.

The strongest signal points to a Tiszakécske win both at half-time and at full-time: the hosts were leading at the break in 40% of their last five matches, while Diósgyőr were trailing at that stage in 60% of theirs. The home side creates significantly more chances, averaging 18 shots and 8 on target per match, compared with the visitors’ 9 shots and 4.5 on target, while their xG stands at 1.98 versus 1.31 for the away side. Diósgyőr have conceded as many as 2.8 goals per match across their last five games and 3.0 over the available part of the season, which, combined with Tiszakécske’s recent average of 1.4 goals scored, supports the hosts maintaining their lead. The visitors are dangerous due to their finishing, but their average of 1.4 goals conceded before half-time in the last five matches, along with a 60% loss rate during this period, further strengthens the 1/1 scenario.