Tlaxcala vs Piratas: match statistics

Tlaxcala are slight favourites: they have won 3 of their last 5 home matches, while Piratas have won just 1 of their last 6 away games. The hosts score an average of 2.4 goals per home match, whereas the visitors manage only 0.83 goals per away game and have failed to score in half of those matches. However, Piratas have reasons to believe they can threaten their opponents: they have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches, compared with Tlaxcala’s 9, and their average away xG is 1.64. The hosts’ defence concedes an average of 1.8 goals at home, so a clean sheet looks unlikely. Even so, Tlaxcala’s home form points to a win, although 50% of Piratas’ away matches have ended in a draw.

In their last five matches, both teams scored in 80% of Tlaxcala’s games and 60% of Piratas’ games, which points towards BTTS - Yes. The visitors averaged 2.2 goals during this period, while the hosts conceded 1.6, giving Piratas reason to believe they can break down their opponents’ defence. On the other hand, Tlaxcala average 2.2 goals at home and register 7.6 shots on target per match, boosting the chances of them scoring. The prediction is tempered by the fact that Piratas average just 0.83 goals away from home and failed to score in 50% of their matches, so the case for BTTS - Yes is only marginal.

Tlaxcala average 2.2 goals and 7.6 shots on target per match at home, providing a solid basis for expecting the hosts to score. Piratas score just 0.83 goals per match away from home, but have averaged 2.2 goals across their last five matches, so their contribution to the scoreline cannot be ruled out. The teams have averaged 3.4 goals each across their last five matches, with at least three goals in 60% and 80% of those games, respectively. Nevertheless, Piratas' away record—in which only 33% of matches went Over 2.5 goals—calls for caution with higher goal lines. Therefore, Over 1.5 goals is the strongest pick: it landed in 60% of Tlaxcala's home matches and 83% of Piratas' away matches.

The strongest HT/FT scenario is Tlaxcala leading at the break and winning the match: at home, the hosts were ahead at half-time in 3 of 5 games and won 4 of 5, while Piratas have not led at the break in any of their 6 away matches. Tlaxcala average 2.2 goals at home, compared with Piratas’ 0.83 away, and the hosts’ advantage is also reflected in 7.6 shots on target per match versus 4.5 for the visitors. If the score is level at half-time, the hosts still have a case for winning: they average 1.6 goals in second halves at home, while their opponents average 0.5 in away second halves. However, the 1/1 pick is not a certainty, as Piratas have won 3 of their last 5 matches overall, compared with Tlaxcala’s 2 of 5, increasing the risk relative to what the home and away splits suggest.