Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates a balanced competition with a slight edge for a draw. Tlaxcala displays solid home form with 50% wins at home and a goal difference of +4, however, their average goals conceded (1.2) and high draw percentage (30%) suggest vulnerability to indecisive outcomes. Tepatitlán de Morelos impresses with excellent recent form (5 matches unbeaten, PPG 2.2) and defensive solidity on the road (0.83 average goals conceded, 33% clean sheets). The very high draw percentage of the visitors away from home (58%) and their effectiveness in recent matches (only 2 goals conceded in 5 games) point towards an indecisive result. The expected goals (xG) of both teams are similar, which further bolsters the prediction of a draw.
Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tlaxcala played Tepatitlán de Morelos in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The match was played on 1 March 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Tlaxcala: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Tepatitlán de Morelos: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tlaxcala scores 1.20 and concedes 1.80 goals per match. Tepatitlán de Morelos scores 1.24 and concedes 0.88. League average: 2.90 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tlaxcala 60%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 52%. Over 2.5: Tlaxcala 60%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 36%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Tepatitlán de Morelos has higher xG: 1.68 vs 1.63. Tlaxcala: 13.7 shots per match, Tepatitlán de Morelos: 14.2.
Match halves
Tlaxcala: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.55. Tepatitlán de Morelos: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.68.
Goals by minute
Tlaxcala: 76-90+ (10 goals). Tepatitlán de Morelos: 76-90+ (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ascenso MX: 2.90 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates a balanced competition with a slight edge for a draw. Tlaxcala displays solid home form with 50% wins at home and a goal difference of +4, however, their average goals conceded (1.2) and high draw percentage (30%) suggest vulnerability to indecisive outcomes. Tepatitlán de Morelos impresses with excellent recent form (5 matches unbeaten, PPG 2.2) and defensive solidity on the road (0.83 average goals conceded, 33% clean sheets). The very high draw percentage of the visitors away from home (58%) and their effectiveness in recent matches (only 2 goals conceded in 5 games) point towards an indecisive result. The expected goals (xG) of both teams are similar, which further bolsters the prediction of a draw.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tlaxcala | Tepatitlán de Morelos | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 28% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 10% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Tlaxcala · 2.2 pts / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 105% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.8 goals / match - Tlaxcala · 0.88 goals / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Tlaxcala scores in 70% of matches (14 of 20 matches), while Tepatitlán de Morelos keeps a clean sheet in 32% (8 of 25 matches).
Tepatitlán de Morelos scores in 68% of matches (17 of 25 matches), while Tlaxcala keeps a clean sheet in 15% (3 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tlaxcala
Over / Under - Tepatitlán de Morelos
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tlaxcala is 5% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.3 pts / match - Tlaxcala · 1.24 pts / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tlaxcala - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 30%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Tepatitlán de Morelos - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +9 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tlaxcala
Tepatitlán de Morelos
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Tlaxcala | Liga | Tepatitlán de Morelos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.00 | 2.90 | ▼ 2.12 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 60% | 55% | ▼ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 60% | 53% | ▼ 36% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 15% | 27% | ▲ 32% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 75% | 73% | • 72% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 85% | 80% | ▼ 72% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Tlaxcala 1 - 0 - 0 Tepatitlán de Morelos. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
The Ascenso MX match finished Tlaxcala 1:0 Tepatitlán de Morelos. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
Tlaxcala score 1.20 goals per game on average and Tepatitlán de Morelos 1.24. The Ascenso MX average is 2.90 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 60% of Tlaxcala's matches and 52% of Tepatitlán de Morelos's.
What form are Tlaxcala and Tepatitlán de Morelos in?
Over the last 5 games Tlaxcala have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Tepatitlán de Morelos 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.