Tłuchowia Tłuchowo vs Lipno Stęszew: match statistics
Lipno Stęszew appears to be the favorite in this match despite their recent poor form. The visitors boast a significantly better scoring record in away matches (an average of 1.36 goals per game) compared to the hosts at home (just 0.5 goals per game). Tłuchowia Tłuchowo has a disastrous home record with a 70% loss rate and only a 10% win rate, making them one of the weakest home teams in the league. Despite a 45% away loss rate, Lipno Stęszew can still boast a 36% win rate and better offensive metrics, including a higher shot conversion rate (13% vs 4%). Additionally, the visitors have an advantage in ball possession (50% vs 47%) and better xG statistics, suggesting they create better goal-scoring opportunities. Taking all these factors into account, an away win is the most likely scenario, although both teams' poor form in their last five matches leaves room for a draw.
Tłuchowia Tłuchowo vs Lipno Stęszew: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tłuchowia Tłuchowo played Lipno Stęszew in 3 Liga Group 2 (Poland). The match was played on 27 March 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Tłuchowia Tłuchowo: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Lipno Stęszew: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tłuchowia Tłuchowo scores 0.82 and concedes 1.95 goals per match. Lipno Stęszew scores 1.35 and concedes 1.65. League average: 2.93 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tłuchowia Tłuchowo 41%, Lipno Stęszew 52%. Over 2.5: Tłuchowia Tłuchowo 55%, Lipno Stęszew 52%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 56%.
xG, shots and style
Lipno Stęszew has higher xG: 1.42 vs 1.27. Tłuchowia Tłuchowo: 6.8 shots per match, Lipno Stęszew: 8.3.
Match halves
Tłuchowia Tłuchowo: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.32. Lipno Stęszew: half-time lead 39%, second-half goals 0.61.
Goals by minute
Tłuchowia Tłuchowo: 31-45+ (5 goals). Lipno Stęszew: 0-15 (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
3 Liga Group 2: 2.93 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 56%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Lipno Stęszew appears to be the favorite in this match despite their recent poor form. The visitors boast a significantly better scoring record in away matches (an average of 1.36 goals per game) compared to the hosts at home (just 0.5 goals per game). Tłuchowia Tłuchowo has a disastrous home record with a 70% loss rate and only a 10% win rate, making them one of the weakest home teams in the league. Despite a 45% away loss rate, Lipno Stęszew can still boast a 36% win rate and better offensive metrics, including a higher shot conversion rate (13% vs 4%). Additionally, the visitors have an advantage in ball possession (50% vs 47%) and better xG statistics, suggesting they create better goal-scoring opportunities. Taking all these factors into account, an away win is the most likely scenario, although both teams' poor form in their last five matches leaves room for a draw.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Lipno has a very low seasonCSPercentage (9%) and a high average of goals conceded (2.09) and xG against (1.91), which strongly supports the thesis that the hosts will score. Tłuchowia rarely fails to score (seasonFTSPercentage 17%) and generates solid seasonal xG (1.47) with a decent number of shots on target (4.33). On the other hand, Lipno has decent offensive parameters this season (1.36 goals per match, 4.75 shots on target) and a high BTTS percentage (64%), which increases the chances of the visitors scoring. A downside for BTTS is the last 5 matches, where both teams score on average only 0.8 goals, and BTTS stands at 40% (Tłuchowia) and 60% (Lipno), so the scoring form is unstable. Overall, given Lipno's weak defense and the decent offensive potential of both sides, I slightly favor the BTTS scenario as 'Yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model indicates an elevated goal-scoring potential primarily due to Lipno's weak defense: an average of 2.09 goals conceded per match, a high xG against (1.91), and only 9% clean sheets. Both teams generate a similar volume of shots (Tłuchowia 11.78, Lipno 11.38) and shots on target (4.33 vs 4.75), supporting the scenario of at least two goals. Historical trends also favor Over 1.5: Tłuchowia has 67% of matches with Over 1.5, while Lipno has as high as 100%, with a simultaneous 100% Over 0.5 on both sides. On the other hand, recent form over the last 5 matches shows a decline in goal production (0.8 goals scored each), which is why the 2.5 line is more 'on the edge'. Given the league average of 2.93 goals and the defensive profiles (xGA Tłuchowia 1.56, xGA Lipna 1.91), the strongest signal is the safer Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal is Tłuchowia's second-half superiority: the hosts have far better second-half statistics (ppg_2hg 1.42, conceded_2hg_avg 0.5, cs_2hg_percentage 57%) than Lipno (ppg_2hg 0.4, conceded_2hg_avg 1.4, cs_2hg_percentage 10%, and 0% win rate in the second half). At the same time, the first halves appear relatively balanced (scoredAVGHT 0.67 vs 0.8, concededAVGHT 0.75 vs 0.8), which increases the probability of a draw at the break. Over the long term, Lipno consistently concedes goals (seasonConcededAVG_away 2.09) and has a very low clean sheet rate (9%), favoring a match turnaround in favor of the hosts in the latter stages. Model-wise, this fits the 'X/1' scenario: a cautious, level HT and Tłuchowia's better execution and defense after the break. Additionally, the home side has slightly better attacking xG (1.47) and better PPG for the season (1.42 vs 1.27), supporting an eventual home victory.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tłuchowia Tłuchowo | Lipno Stęszew | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tłuchowia Tłuchowo is 50% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Tłuchowia Tłuchowo · 0.8 pts / match - Lipno Stęszew
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Lipno Stęszew is 65% better for: goals scored per match.
0.82 goals / match - Tłuchowia Tłuchowo · 1.35 goals / match - Lipno Stęszew
Lipno Stęszew is 18% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.95 goals / match - Tłuchowia Tłuchowo · 1.65 goals / match - Lipno Stęszew
Tłuchowia Tłuchowo scores in 59% of matches (13 of 22 matches), while Lipno Stęszew keeps a clean sheet in 26% (6 of 23 matches).
Lipno Stęszew scores in 78% of matches (18 of 23 matches), while Tłuchowia Tłuchowo keeps a clean sheet in 32% (7 of 22 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tłuchowia Tłuchowo
Over / Under - Lipno Stęszew
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Lipno Stęszew is 21% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.18 pts / match - Tłuchowia Tłuchowo · 1.43 pts / match - Lipno Stęszew
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tłuchowia Tłuchowo - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 23%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Lipno Stęszew - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 39% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -4 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -8 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (12 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tłuchowia Tłuchowo
Lipno Stęszew
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (3 Liga Group 2).
Teams vs league
| Tłuchowia Tłuchowo | Liga | Lipno Stęszew | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.77 | 2.93 | • 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 41% | 50% | ▲ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 55% | 56% | ▼ 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 32% | 28% | ▼ 26% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 73% | 71% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 64% | 72% | ▲ 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Tłuchowia Tłuchowo 1 - 0 - 0 Lipno Stęszew. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tłuchowia Tłuchowo vs Lipno Stęszew?
The 3 Liga Group 2 match finished Tłuchowia Tłuchowo 3:1 Lipno Stęszew. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Tłuchowia Tłuchowo vs Lipno Stęszew?
Tłuchowia Tłuchowo score 0.82 goals per game on average and Lipno Stęszew 1.35. The 3 Liga Group 2 average is 2.93 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 41% of Tłuchowia Tłuchowo's matches and 52% of Lipno Stęszew's.
What form are Tłuchowia Tłuchowo and Lipno Stęszew in?
Over the last 5 games Tłuchowia Tłuchowo have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Lipno Stęszew 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tłuchowia Tłuchowo vs Lipno Stęszew?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Tłuchowia Tłuchowo vs Lipno Stęszew: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.