Tłuchowia Tłuchowo vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz: match statistics

Zawisza Bydgoszcz is the clear favorite on paper: they have 15 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses this season versus Tłuchowia’s 6–3–14, and a goal difference of 48–16 versus 21–44 gives the visitors a 28-goal advantage. In their last 5 matches Zawisza scored 6 and conceded only 2, producing 3 wins and 2 draws (2.2 points per match), while the hosts have 6 scored and 10 conceded with a record of 2 wins and 3 losses (1.2 pts per match). In terms of chance quality the hosts generate on average xG 1.31 in home matches but convert that into only 0.73 goals with a 7% conversion rate and 3.4 shots on target per game, whereas Zawisza posts xG 1.23 and turns it into 1.3 goals with a 10% conversion and 4.0 shots on target. Defensively the difference is significant: Tłuchowo concedes 1.64 goals at home and has a home goal difference of -10 with 27% clean sheets, while Zawisza concedes 1.00 goals away and keeps 40% clean sheets. Based on these specific numbers I predict an away win, although Zawisza’s 30% share of matches without scoring means a draw is not entirely out of the question.

Tłuchowia Tłuchowo has a 62% clean sheet rate and concedes only 0.46 goals per game this season, while its seasonal BTTS stands at just 38% — a strong signal favoring No Goal. Zawisza Bydgoszcz averages 1.3 goals per match and records a seasonal BTTS of 50%, but in the last 5 matches they scored 6 and conceded only 2 (0.4 per game), indicating good defensive form from the visitors. A conflicting signal for BTTS comes from Tłuchowia’s last 5 matches — they conceded 10 goals (2.0 per game) and BTTS occurred in 60% of those games, with xG against Tłuchowia at 1.06, meaning opponents are creating real scoring chances. Although Tłuchowia produces strong offensive metrics (seasonal xG_for 2.04 and an average of 2.69 goals scored), the season-long defensive advantage (62% CS) combined with Zawisza’s moderate finishing (1.3 goals average, only 2 conceded in 5) argues for a lower likelihood of BTTS. I assess BTTS - Yes at ~35% and No Goal at 65%, selecting 'no' as the strongest signal.

Based on xG: Tłuchowia has xG_for = 2.04 while Zawisza’s xG_against = 1.47, implying an expected ~1.76 goals for the home side; Zawisza has xG_for = 1.23 versus the home xG_against = 1.06 => ~1.14 goals, totaling 2.90 expected goals. With a total of 2.90, a Poisson distribution suggests roughly a 79% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 55% for 3+ goals (Over 2.5) and about 33% for 4+ goals (Over 3.5). Seasonal stats support Over 1.5: Tłuchowia records Over1.5 in 92% of matches and averages 2.69 goals scored, Zawisza records Over1.5 in 60% of matches, and the league averages 2.95 goals per game. The hosts average 15.83 shots and 7.5 on target with a 16% conversion rate, while the visitors average 10 shots, 4 on target and a 10% conversion, increasing the likelihood that Tłuchowia will convert chances. In light of the expected total of 2.90 and the hosts’ historical 92% Over1.5 rate, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal; Over 2.5 is moderately likely (~55%), and Over 3.5 is less likely (~33%).

At half-time the statistics strongly favor the home side: Tłuchowia led at the break in 10 matches (91%), averaging 1.73 goals scored and only 0.18 conceded. Over full matches the home team averages 2.69 goals and wins 85% of games, while Zawisza records 1.3 goals and 40% wins — the gap of 2.69 vs 1.3 and 85% vs 40% is significant. The home side’s xG is 2.04 versus the visitors’ 1.23, and average shots 15.83 with 7.5 on target compared to 10.0 with 4.0 on target confirm Tłuchowia’s offensive superiority. Additionally, the hosts earn an average of 2.18 points per match in second halves and win 64% of those periods, whereas the visitors have 1.1 points per match and only 10% second-half wins, suggesting that a lead at the break will be maintained. For these reasons the most likely scenario is HT/FT 1/1.