Tobol vs Kairat: match statistics
Tobol vs Kairat: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tobol play Kairat in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match date is 11 April 2026 at 15:00. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Tobol: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Kairat: 5-0-0, 3.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tobol scores 1.11 and concedes 1.44 goals per match. Kairat scores 1.95 and concedes 0.68. League average: 2.31 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tobol 61%, Kairat 53%. Over 2.5: Tobol 50%, Kairat 53%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 42%.
xG, shots and style
Kairat has higher xG: 1.82 vs 1.55. Tobol: 13.3 shots per match, Kairat: 16.3.
Match halves
Tobol: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.56. Kairat: half-time lead 37%, second-half goals 0.95.
Goals by minute
Tobol: 0-15 (5 goals). Kairat: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.31 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 42%.
Head-to-head
2 H2H matches: 0-0-2. Average goals 3.50, BTTS 100%.
Match description
I back the away win ('2'). Kairat sit top (position 1) and have a last-5 record of 4 wins and 1 draw ('wwdww'), averaging 2.6 points per game in that span, while Tobol's last-5 form is 'ldllw' with only 0.8 pts/game. Kairat's defence is a major asset — the visitors have yet to concede in away matches (0.00 goals conceded away, 100% clean sheets) and have allowed just 1 goal in their last 5, whereas Tobol concede 2.00 goals per home game on average and have shipped 9 goals in their last 5 fixtures. Offensively the hosts can be dangerous — Tobol score 2.00 goals per home game and have 11 goals in their last 5 matches with ~11 shots per game and an 18% conversion, while Kairat average 0.5 goals on the road with a 5% conversion. Average xG supports Kairat's advantage: xG for 1.41 for Kairat vs 1.38 for Tobol, and xG against 0.41 vs 1.82; additionally Kairat control possession (68% vs 56%), therefore I estimate probabilities as: home 15%, draw 20%, away 65%.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tobol | Kairat | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Kairat is 114% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Tobol · 3 pts / match - Kairat
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Kairat is 76% better for: goals scored per match.
1.11 goals / match - Tobol · 1.95 goals / match - Kairat
Kairat is 112% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.44 goals / match - Tobol · 0.68 goals / match - Kairat
Tobol scores in 72% of matches (13 of 18 matches), while Kairat keeps a clean sheet in 47% (9 of 19 matches).
Kairat scores in 89% of matches (17 of 19 matches), while Tobol keeps a clean sheet in 11% (2 of 18 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Tobol
Over / Under — Kairat
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Kairat is 31% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.28 pts / match - Tobol · 1.68 pts / match - Kairat
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tobol - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 28%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Kairat - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 37% of matches and wins 63%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +6 | +8 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (5 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tobol
Kairat
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Tobol | Liga | Kairat | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.56 | 2.31 | ▲ 2.63 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 61% | 52% | • 53% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 42% | ▲ 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 11% | 29% | ▲ 47% |
| Goal before half-time | • 61% | 62% | • 63% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 78% | 70% | ▲ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Tobol 0 - 0 - 2 Kairat. Average goals 3.50, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tobol vs Kairat?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Tobol 1:1 Kairat. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Tobol and Kairat?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Tobol won 0, Kairat won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Tobol vs Kairat?
Tobol score 1.11 goals per game on average and Kairat 1.95. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.31 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 42% of games. Both teams score in 61% of Tobol's matches and 53% of Kairat's.
What form are Tobol and Kairat in?
Over the last 5 games Tobol have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Kairat 5-0-0 (3.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tobol vs Kairat?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Tobol vs Kairat: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.