Tobol vs Ordabasy: match statistics
Tobol vs Ordabasy: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tobol played Ordabasy in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match was played on 23 May 2026. Venue: Astana Arena. Final score: 0:3.
Current form
Tobol: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Ordabasy: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tobol scores 0.90 and concedes 1.60 goals per match. Ordabasy scores 1.60 and concedes 0.70. League average: 2.06 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tobol 60%, Ordabasy 60%. Over 2.5: Tobol 50%, Ordabasy 40%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 38%.
xG, shots and style
Ordabasy has higher xG: 1.85 vs 1.48. Tobol: 13.7 shots per match, Ordabasy: 16.5.
Match halves
Tobol: half-time lead 10%, second-half goals 0.40. Ordabasy: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 1.10.
Goals by minute
Tobol: 0-15 (3 goals). Ordabasy: 76-90+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.06 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 38%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I expect an away win (Ordabasy). Ordabasy sit 2nd in the table compared to Tobol’s 14th, and their season goal differential is 16 scored and 7 conceded versus Tobol’s 9 scored and 16 conceded. In the last 5 matches the visitors have scored 8 and conceded only 1, averaging 2.6 points per match, while Tobol have scored 5 and conceded 5, only 1.4 points per match. Defensively Ordabasy have a clear edge: away they concede 0.5 goals per game on average and keep 50% clean sheets, whereas Tobol at home concede 1.0 goals on average and have 25% clean sheets. The hosts create more chances (at home on average 16 shots and 4.75 on target with xG 1.77 versus 11.75 shots, 4.25 on target and xG 1.41 for Ordabasy away), but the visitors’ higher efficiency (11% vs 9%) and current form lead me to favor Ordabasy.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes. Tobol at home has a BTTS rate of 67% and 0% clean sheets, while Ordabasy has a seasonal BTTS of 50% and 25% of matches without scoring. This is supported by xG figures: home xG 2.14 vs xG conceded 0.86, and Ordabasy xG 1.41 vs xG conceded 0.95, indicating both teams have realistic scoring chances. Shot stats show Tobol’s advantage (6.5 on target and 19.67 attempts per game vs 4.25 and 11.75 for Ordabasy), but the counterpoint is Ordabasy’s last 5 matches with only 0.2 goals conceded on average and 20% BTTS. Considering the home side’s 0% clean sheets and a theoretical 75% chance of the away side scoring (100%-25%=75%), I assign 70% to YES and 30% to NO.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Expected goals are 1.50 for Tobol and 1.18 for Ordabasy, totaling 2.68 goals. Calculations are based on xG: home 2.14 and away 1.41, and xG against 0.95 (Tobol) and 0.86 (Ordabasy), which yields (2.14+0.86)/2=1.50 and (1.41+0.95)/2=1.18. Tobol averages 19.67 shots and 6.5 on target per match versus 11.75 and 4.25 for Ordabasy, and the percentage of matches with over 1.5 goals is 100% for Tobol and 75% for Ordabasy, which strongly supports Over 1.5. Season Over 2.5 rates are 50% (Tobol) and 25% (Ordabasy); the league averages 2.10 goals, and our expectation of 2.68 indicates a marginal edge for Over 2.5 (~50%) and a low probability for Over 3.5 (~28%). Based on this, I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest signal from the data.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I expect a draw at half-time because Ordabasy is level at the break in 75% of matches and on average does not concede before half-time (average goals conceded by half-time = 0.0), while Tobol averages 0.67 goals by half-time and leads in 33% of games. After the break the advantage should shift to Tobol: the home side scores on average 1.17 second-half goals, has as many as 5 goals in minutes 76–90 and wins home matches 67% seasonally. This is supported by higher xG and Tobol’s offensive activity — home xG is 2.14 versus 1.41 for the visitors, with an average of 19.67 shots and 6.5 on target compared to 11.75 and 4.25 for Ordabasy, which suggests greater pressure and chance creation after the interval. One should however account for the visitors’ form: Ordabasy have won 80% of their last 5 matches versus Tobol’s 40% in the same period, hence a half-time draw and a full-time draw are realistic alternatives. Considering these data, the strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win after the break (X/1) — I assign this option a 38% probability, with 18% for 1/1 and 18% for X/X as secondary outcomes.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tobol | Ordabasy | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 26% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ordabasy is 117% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Tobol · 2.6 pts / match - Ordabasy
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ordabasy is 78% better for: goals scored per match.
0.9 goals / match - Tobol · 1.6 goals / match - Ordabasy
Ordabasy is 129% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.6 goals / match - Tobol · 0.7 goals / match - Ordabasy
Tobol scores in 70% of matches (7 of 10 matches), while Ordabasy keeps a clean sheet in 40% (4 of 10 matches).
Ordabasy scores in 90% of matches (9 of 10 matches), while Tobol keeps a clean sheet in 10% (1 of 10 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tobol
Over / Under - Ordabasy
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ordabasy is 56% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.9 pts / match - Tobol · 1.4 pts / match - Ordabasy
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tobol - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 10% of matches and wins 20%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Ordabasy - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 60%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (3 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tobol
Ordabasy
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Tobol | Liga | Ordabasy | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.50 | 2.06 | ▲ 2.30 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 60% | 49% | ▲ 60% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 38% | ▲ 40% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 10% | 32% | ▲ 40% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 60% | 57% | ▲ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 70% | 67% | ▲ 80% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Tobol 2 - 0 - 0 Ordabasy. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tobol vs Ordabasy?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Tobol 0:3 Ordabasy. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Tobol and Ordabasy?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Tobol won 2, Ordabasy won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Tobol vs Ordabasy?
Tobol score 0.90 goals per game on average and Ordabasy 1.60. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.06 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 38% of games. Both teams score in 60% of Tobol's matches and 60% of Ordabasy's.
What form are Tobol and Ordabasy in?
Over the last 5 games Tobol have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Ordabasy 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tobol vs Ordabasy?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Tobol vs Ordabasy: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.