Tochigi City vs Jubilo Iwata: match statistics

Tochigi City have a clear home advantage: they won their only home match so far, scoring 5 goals and conceding none. The hosts create significantly more chances, averaging 24 shots and 9 shots on target per match, with an xG of 2.69, while Jubilo Iwata manage just 10 shots, 3 on target and an xG of 1.31 away from home. Tochigi City’s efficiency also looks superior, standing at 21% compared with the visitors’ 10%, while the team has scored 14 goals in its last five matches. Jubilo Iwata lost their away fixture, concede an average of 3 goals on the road and have failed to keep a clean sheet, which, combined with the hosts’ attacking numbers, strongly points towards a Tochigi City win. The visitors tend to enjoy more possession, averaging 62%, but their three draws in the last five matches and 10 goals conceded during that period limit their chances of taking points.

Both teams have recorded BTTS at 100% in their league matches so far, and neither has kept a clean sheet yet. Tochigi City average 1.5 goals scored and 6.0 shots on target per match, while Jubilo Iwata concede as many as 3.0 goals per game. The visitors score an average of 1.0 goals, but their last five appearances have produced 1.8 goals and an xG of 1.64, which is sufficient evidence against a home defence that has conceded an average of 1.4 goals during this period. The attacking profile of the match is also supported by the average xG figures: 1.89 for Tochigi City and 1.64 for Jubilo in their last five fixtures. Although the league-wide BTTS average stands at just 37%, the current data for both teams clearly provides much stronger support for a goal at each end—BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal—than for BTTS - No.

Tochigi City average 1.5 goals at home, while Jubilo Iwata concede as many as 3.0 goals per away match, clearly strengthening the hosts’ attacking potential. The average xG stands at 1.75 for Tochigi and 1.31 for Jubilo, while the teams’ last five matches produced averages of 2.8 and 1.8 goals scored per game, respectively. Every match played by both teams so far has featured at least 2 goals, and the 2.5-goal line has been surpassed in 80% of each team’s last five appearances. Neither side has kept a clean sheet yet, and Jubilo have conceded in every match, meaning a scenario with no more than one goal would require a clear departure from the current trends. Over 1.5 goals is the strongest option, as it combines a high level of consistency with a projected total of 3.05 goals for the match.

Tochigi City has a clearer home profile: they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Jubilo Iwata concede as many as 3.0 goals per away match. The hosts were leading at the break in 50% of their matches so far, whereas the visitors were behind at half-time in 100% of their away games and failed to score a single goal before the interval. Tochigi’s advantage is also evident in chance creation, with an average xG of 1.75 compared to Jubilo’s 1.31, while shots on target stand at 6.0 versus 3.0. In their last five matches, Tochigi won 60% of the time and scored an average of 2.8 goals, whereas Jubilo won only 20% of their matches and conceded 2.0 goals per game. The most likely scenario is therefore that the hosts will make the most of their strong start, take the lead at the break and hold on to it until the final whistle, making 1/1 the most plausible HT/FT outcome.