Toluca vs Atlas: match statistics
Toluca presents a dominant form, especially at their own stadium, where they achieve a 71% win rate and maintain an impressive goal difference (+24). In their last five fixtures, the hosts have amassed 12 points (4 wins), scoring an average of 2.6 goals per game. Atlas, on the other hand, performs very poorly in away matches, losing as much as 69% of their games and conceding an average of 2.15 goals per match while scoring a mere 0.92. The difference in play quality is also evident in the xG statistics, with Toluca generating an average of 1.96 xG in home matches, whereas Atlas records only 0.93 xG on the road. Considering the visitors' abysmal form in their last five games (just 1.2 points per match) and their 38% failure to score rate in away matches, the hosts' advantage is overwhelming. All key indicators unequivocally point to a confident victory for Toluca.
Toluca vs Atlas: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Toluca played Atlas in Liga MX (Mexico). The match was played on 15 March 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Toluca: 5-0-0, 3.00 points/match. Atlas: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Toluca scores 2.03 and concedes 0.88 goals per match. Atlas scores 1.37 and concedes 1.85. League average: 2.94 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Toluca 52%, Atlas 59%. Over 2.5: Toluca 55%, Atlas 59%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 56%.
xG, shots and style
Toluca has higher xG: 1.82 vs 1.11. Toluca: 17.6 shots per match, Atlas: 10.5.
Match halves
Toluca: half-time lead 42%, second-half goals 1.12. Atlas: half-time lead 37%, second-half goals 0.63.
Goals by minute
Toluca: 46-60 (16 goals). Atlas: 0-15 (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga MX: 2.94 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 56%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Toluca presents a dominant form, especially at their own stadium, where they achieve a 71% win rate and maintain an impressive goal difference (+24). In their last five fixtures, the hosts have amassed 12 points (4 wins), scoring an average of 2.6 goals per game. Atlas, on the other hand, performs very poorly in away matches, losing as much as 69% of their games and conceding an average of 2.15 goals per match while scoring a mere 0.92. The difference in play quality is also evident in the xG statistics, with Toluca generating an average of 1.96 xG in home matches, whereas Atlas records only 0.93 xG on the road. Considering the visitors' abysmal form in their last five games (just 1.2 points per match) and their 38% failure to score rate in away matches, the hosts' advantage is overwhelming. All key indicators unequivocally point to a confident victory for Toluca.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Toluca | Atlas | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Toluca is 150% better for: last-5 form.
3 pts / match - Toluca · 1.2 pts / match - Atlas
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toluca is 48% better for: goals scored per match.
2.03 goals / match - Toluca · 1.37 goals / match - Atlas
Toluca is 110% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.88 goals / match - Toluca · 1.85 goals / match - Atlas
Toluca scores in 76% of matches (25 of 33 matches), while Atlas keeps a clean sheet in 19% (5 of 27 matches).
Atlas scores in 74% of matches (20 of 27 matches), while Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 39% (13 of 33 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Toluca
Over / Under - Atlas
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Toluca is 18% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.67 pts / match - Toluca · 1.41 pts / match - Atlas
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Toluca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 42% of matches and wins 64%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Atlas - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 37% of matches and wins 33%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +6 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (16 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +9 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -9 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Toluca
Atlas
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| Toluca | Liga | Atlas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.91 | 2.94 | ▲ 3.22 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 52% | 58% | • 59% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 55% | 56% | ▲ 59% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 39% | 24% | ▼ 19% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 70% | 73% | ▲ 81% |
| Goal after half-time | • 76% | 77% | ▼ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Toluca 0 - 1 - 0 Atlas. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Toluca vs Atlas?
The Liga MX match finished Toluca 1:1 Atlas. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Toluca vs Atlas?
Toluca score 2.03 goals per game on average and Atlas 1.37. The Liga MX average is 2.94 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 52% of Toluca's matches and 59% of Atlas's.
What form are Toluca and Atlas in?
Over the last 5 games Toluca have a 5-0-0 record (3.00 points per game) and Atlas 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Toluca vs Atlas?
The statistical background for Toluca vs Atlas — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.