Toluca vs Atlético San Luis: match statistics
Toluca vs Atlético San Luis: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Toluca played Atlético San Luis in Liga MX (Mexico). The match was played on 13 April 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Toluca: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Atlético San Luis: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Toluca scores 1.92 and concedes 0.89 goals per match. Atlético San Luis scores 1.50 and concedes 1.70. League average: 2.90 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Toluca 53%, Atlético San Luis 67%. Over 2.5: Toluca 50%, Atlético San Luis 63%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 56%.
xG, shots and style
Toluca has higher xG: 1.82 vs 1.19. Toluca: 17.7 shots per match, Atlético San Luis: 10.6.
Match halves
Toluca: half-time lead 42%, second-half goals 1.06. Atlético San Luis: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Toluca: 46-60 (16 goals). Atlético San Luis: 61-75 (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga MX: 2.90 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 56%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a Toluca win (1) — the statistics strongly favor the home side. Toluca at home averages 2.39 goals per match with 6.39 shots on target and 19.44 attempts, while Atlético San Luis away records 1.6 goals with 4.6 shots on target and 12.07 attempts, indicating a clear advantage in chance creation. xG values confirm this gap: Toluca has 1.99 xG at home versus 1.35 xG for San Luis away, and defensively Toluca concedes 1.06 goals at home while San Luis concedes 1.8 goals on the road. Over the season Toluca has 21 wins and 69 goals scored with only 5 losses, whereas San Luis has 9 wins, 18 losses and 45 goals scored, further validating the home side's superiority. In the last 5 matches Toluca scored 10 goals and averages 1.6 points versus 8 goals and 1.4 points for San Luis; considering possession (58% vs 46%), I assess the probabilities as 68% Toluca win, 18% draw and 14% away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams register high BTTS rates this season — Toluca 67% and Atlético San Luis 67% — versus a league average of 57%, which is a strong initial signal for BTTS - Yes. Season averages show Toluca scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6, while San Luis scores 1.6 and concedes 1.8; in the last 5 matches Toluca averaged 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded, and San Luis averaged 1.6 scored and 1.6 conceded, confirming consistent goal exchange. xG figures support this: 1.02 for Toluca vs 1.35 for San Luis, with 1.38 xG against Toluca and 1.51 xG against San Luis, and 3.07 vs 4.6 shots on target per match, so the visitors have realistic chances to score. Low clean sheet rates (13% Toluca, 27% San Luis) and high combined “over 2.5 goals and BTTS” rates (53% and 60%) further increase the likelihood of both teams scoring. Therefore I recommend BTTS - Yes (probability 75% vs 25%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Both teams have season metrics indicating a high propensity for goals: Toluca scores on average 1.4 goals and has matches with over 1.5 goals in 80% of cases, Atlético San Luis scores 1.6 and records such matches in 87% of fixtures. Averaging an xG-based approach (xG for Toluca 1.02 vs San Luis 1.35; xG against: Toluca 1.38 vs San Luis 1.51) and historical means yields expected goals of 1.43 for Toluca and 1.48 for San Luis, totaling 2.91 expected goals. A Poisson model for a 2.91 total indicates roughly a 79% chance of more than 1.5 goals; accounting also for the seasonal 80%/87% figures and the fact that in 67% of matches each team scored, I assign a final 82% probability to Over 1.5. For the 2.5 line the model gives about 56% for Over (seasonal Over 2.5: Toluca 60%, San Luis 67%), while Over 3.5 drops to ~33% (seasonal 27%/40%), so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Additionally, San Luis averages 12.07 shots with 4.6 on target versus Toluca’s 9.07 and 3.07, and shot conversion is 15% vs 13%, which further supports a bet on Over 1.5 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and an Atlético San Luis victory at full-time (X/2). The home side recorded half-time draws in 53% of their home matches this season, while Atlético San Luis had draws at half-time in 33% of their away matches, indicating a frequent level score after 45 minutes. The visitors possess a clear quality edge: average xG 1.35 versus the home team’s 1.02, more average shots (12.07 vs 9.07) and more shots on target (4.6 vs 3.07), and a season win rate of 40% versus 20% for Toluca. Additionally, Atlético more often dominated second halves — they won the second half in 53% of cases versus 13% for the hosts, and their average second-half goals are 1.07 (visitors) vs 0.93 (hosts), which increases the likelihood of a turnaround after the break.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Toluca | Atlético San Luis | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Toluca is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Toluca · 1.4 pts / match - Atlético San Luis
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toluca is 28% better for: goals scored per match.
1.92 goals / match - Toluca · 1.5 goals / match - Atlético San Luis
Toluca is 91% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.89 goals / match - Toluca · 1.7 goals / match - Atlético San Luis
Toluca scores in 75% of matches (27 of 36 matches), while Atlético San Luis keeps a clean sheet in 20% (6 of 30 matches).
Atlético San Luis scores in 87% of matches (26 of 30 matches), while Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 36% (13 of 36 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Toluca
Over / Under - Atlético San Luis
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Toluca is 36% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.67 pts / match - Toluca · 1.23 pts / match - Atlético San Luis
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Toluca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 42% of matches and wins 58%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Atlético San Luis - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 0% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (16 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Toluca
Atlético San Luis
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| Toluca | Liga | Atlético San Luis | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.81 | 2.90 | ▲ 3.20 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 53% | 59% | ▲ 67% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 56% | ▲ 63% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 36% | 24% | ▼ 20% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 72% | ▼ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | • 78% | 78% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Toluca 1 - 0 - 0 Atlético San Luis. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Toluca vs Atlético San Luis?
The Liga MX match finished Toluca 1:1 Atlético San Luis. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Toluca vs Atlético San Luis?
Toluca score 1.92 goals per game on average and Atlético San Luis 1.50. The Liga MX average is 2.90 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 53% of Toluca's matches and 67% of Atlético San Luis's.
What form are Toluca and Atlético San Luis in?
Over the last 5 games Toluca have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Atlético San Luis 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Toluca vs Atlético San Luis?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Toluca vs Atlético San Luis: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.