Toluca vs Cruz Azul: match statistics
Toluca displays impressive home form with a 69% win rate at home and only 8% losses, averaging 2.69 goals scored per match and just 1.23 conceded. The hosts are in excellent form, averaging 2.2 points per match in their last five games without a defeat. Cruz Azul, despite a solid overall record, has significantly weaker away statistics – only 42% wins and as many as 42% draws, with an average of just 1.58 goals scored away from home. The difference in expected goals (xG) also favors Toluca: 2.1 xG For at home compared to Cruz Azul's 1.61 xG For away. Additionally, the hosts have an advantage in ball possession (58% vs 53%) and a significantly better shot accuracy. Considering all these factors, Toluca holds a clear advantage in this clash.
Toluca vs Cruz Azul: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Toluca played Cruz Azul in Liga MX (Mexico). The match was played on 7 February 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Toluca: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match. Cruz Azul: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Toluca scores 2.00 and concedes 0.93 goals per match. Cruz Azul scores 1.80 and concedes 1.16. League average: 2.95 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Toluca 52%, Cruz Azul 64%. Over 2.5: Toluca 56%, Cruz Azul 52%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Cruz Azul has higher xG: 1.90 vs 1.82. Toluca: 17.6 shots per match, Cruz Azul: 17.6.
Match halves
Toluca: half-time lead 41%, second-half goals 1.07. Cruz Azul: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 1.04.
Goals by minute
Toluca: 46-60 (15 goals). Cruz Azul: 76-90+ (14 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga MX: 2.95 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Toluca displays impressive home form with a 69% win rate at home and only 8% losses, averaging 2.69 goals scored per match and just 1.23 conceded. The hosts are in excellent form, averaging 2.2 points per match in their last five games without a defeat. Cruz Azul, despite a solid overall record, has significantly weaker away statistics – only 42% wins and as many as 42% draws, with an average of just 1.58 goals scored away from home. The difference in expected goals (xG) also favors Toluca: 2.1 xG For at home compared to Cruz Azul's 1.61 xG For away. Additionally, the hosts have an advantage in ball possession (58% vs 53%) and a significantly better shot accuracy. Considering all these factors, Toluca holds a clear advantage in this clash.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Toluca | Cruz Azul | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Toluca is 10% better for: last-5 form.
2.2 pts / match - Toluca · 2 pts / match - Cruz Azul
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toluca is 11% better for: goals scored per match.
2 goals / match - Toluca · 1.8 goals / match - Cruz Azul
Toluca is 25% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.93 goals / match - Toluca · 1.16 goals / match - Cruz Azul
Toluca scores in 70% of matches (19 of 27 matches), while Cruz Azul keeps a clean sheet in 32% (8 of 25 matches).
Cruz Azul scores in 88% of matches (22 of 25 matches), while Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 37% (10 of 27 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Toluca
Over / Under - Cruz Azul
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Toluca is 14% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.59 pts / match - Toluca · 1.4 pts / match - Cruz Azul
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Toluca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 41% of matches and wins 59%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Cruz Azul - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 56%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 100% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (15 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Toluca
Cruz Azul
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| Toluca | Liga | Cruz Azul | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.93 | 2.95 | • 2.96 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 52% | 57% | ▲ 64% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 56% | 54% | ▼ 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 37% | 25% | ▲ 32% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 70% | 72% | ▼ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 78% | 76% | ▲ 80% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Toluca 0 - 0 - 1 Cruz Azul. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Toluca vs Cruz Azul?
The Liga MX match finished Toluca 1:1 Cruz Azul. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Toluca vs Cruz Azul?
Toluca score 2.00 goals per game on average and Cruz Azul 1.80. The Liga MX average is 2.95 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 52% of Toluca's matches and 64% of Cruz Azul's.
What form are Toluca and Cruz Azul in?
Over the last 5 games Toluca have a 3-2-0 record (2.20 points per game) and Cruz Azul 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Toluca vs Cruz Azul?
The statistical background for Toluca vs Cruz Azul — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.