Toluca vs Guadalajara: match statistics
Toluca displays impressive home form with 67% of matches won at home and only 7% losses, making them a very difficult opponent at their own stadium. The hosts average 2.47 goals per home match with an xG of 2.01, indicating an effective offense that exceeds expectations. Guadalajara, despite good recent form (4 wins in the last 5 matches), has a significantly weaker away record with only 54% wins and 38% losses, averaging just 1.46 goals scored on the road. A key factor is the difference in efficiency: Toluca has a conversion rate of 13% in home matches compared to Guadalajara's 10% away, alongside a possession advantage (58% vs 55%). The hosts' solid defense (only 1 goal conceded in the last 5 matches) and a goal difference of +20 in home games versus just +3 for Guadalajara away argue for a Toluca victory, though the visitors' form does not preclude a draw or an upset.
Toluca vs Guadalajara: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Toluca played Guadalajara in Liga MX (Mexico). The match was played on 28 February 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
Toluca: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match. Guadalajara: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Toluca scores 1.97 and concedes 0.87 goals per match. Guadalajara scores 1.65 and concedes 1.19. League average: 2.93 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Toluca 50%, Guadalajara 54%. Over 2.5: Toluca 53%, Guadalajara 58%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Toluca has higher xG: 1.81 vs 1.53. Toluca: 17.4 shots per match, Guadalajara: 14.6.
Match halves
Toluca: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 1.07. Guadalajara: half-time lead 46%, second-half goals 0.69.
Goals by minute
Toluca: 46-60 (15 goals). Guadalajara: 31-45+ (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga MX: 2.93 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Toluca displays impressive home form with 67% of matches won at home and only 7% losses, making them a very difficult opponent at their own stadium. The hosts average 2.47 goals per home match with an xG of 2.01, indicating an effective offense that exceeds expectations. Guadalajara, despite good recent form (4 wins in the last 5 matches), has a significantly weaker away record with only 54% wins and 38% losses, averaging just 1.46 goals scored on the road. A key factor is the difference in efficiency: Toluca has a conversion rate of 13% in home matches compared to Guadalajara's 10% away, alongside a possession advantage (58% vs 55%). The hosts' solid defense (only 1 goal conceded in the last 5 matches) and a goal difference of +20 in home games versus just +3 for Guadalajara away argue for a Toluca victory, though the visitors' form does not preclude a draw or an upset.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Toluca | Guadalajara | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Guadalajara is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Toluca · 2.4 pts / match - Guadalajara
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toluca is 19% better for: goals scored per match.
1.97 goals / match - Toluca · 1.65 goals / match - Guadalajara
Toluca is 37% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.87 goals / match - Toluca · 1.19 goals / match - Guadalajara
Toluca scores in 73% of matches (22 of 30 matches), while Guadalajara keeps a clean sheet in 31% (8 of 26 matches).
Guadalajara scores in 77% of matches (20 of 26 matches), while Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 40% (12 of 30 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Toluca
Over / Under - Guadalajara
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Toluca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 60%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Guadalajara - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 46% of matches and wins 58%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (15 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (12 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Toluca
Guadalajara
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| Toluca | Liga | Guadalajara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.83 | 2.93 | • 2.85 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 57% | ▼ 54% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 53% | 55% | ▲ 58% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 40% | 24% | ▲ 31% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 70% | 74% | • 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 77% | 75% | ▼ 65% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Toluca 1 - 0 - 0 Guadalajara. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Toluca vs Guadalajara?
The Liga MX match finished Toluca 2:0 Guadalajara. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Toluca vs Guadalajara?
Toluca score 1.97 goals per game on average and Guadalajara 1.65. The Liga MX average is 2.93 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Toluca's matches and 54% of Guadalajara's.
What form are Toluca and Guadalajara in?
Over the last 5 games Toluca have a 2-3-0 record (1.80 points per game) and Guadalajara 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Toluca vs Guadalajara?
The statistical background for Toluca vs Guadalajara — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.