Toluca vs Pachuca: match statistics
Toluca vs Pachuca: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Toluca play Pachuca in Liga MX (Mexico). The match date is 4 May 2026 at 03:15. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Toluca: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. Pachuca: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Toluca scores 1.86 and concedes 1.02 goals per match. Pachuca scores 1.35 and concedes 1.10. League average: 2.91 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Toluca 55%, Pachuca 50%. Over 2.5: Toluca 50%, Pachuca 48%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Toluca has higher xG: 1.82 vs 1.46. Toluca: 17.5 shots per match, Pachuca: 13.9.
Match halves
Toluca: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 1.07. Pachuca: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.68.
Goals by minute
Toluca: 46-60 (19 goals). Pachuca: 31-45+ (15 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga MX: 2.91 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
3 H2H matches: 0-2-1. Average goals 2.67, BTTS 67%.
Match description
I back Toluca to win. The hosts win 65% of home matches, have scored 78 goals this season and conceded 40, and average 2.4 goals per home game. Toluca averages 19.45 shots at home (6.6 on target) and has home xG of 2.00, while Pachuca on the road averages 13.17 shots (4.22 on target) and xG 1.38, giving the hosts an advantage in quality of chances. Defensively Toluca concedes 1.05 goals per home match on average (xG against 1.11), whereas Pachuca concedes 1.33 goals away (xG against 1.44) and fail to score in 28% of away matches versus only 5% FTS for Toluca. Although Pachuca has the better recent form (3 wins, 2 losses and 1.8 PPG vs Toluca’s 2 wins, 3 losses and 1.2 PPG), the hosts’ superiority in goals (2.4 vs 1.33), xG (2.00 vs 1.38) and higher number of shots on target leads me to designate Toluca as the favorite.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Toluca | Pachuca | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Pachuca is 200% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Toluca · 1.8 pts / match - Pachuca
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toluca is 38% better for: goals scored per match.
1.86 goals / match - Toluca · 1.35 goals / match - Pachuca
Toluca is 8% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.02 goals / match - Toluca · 1.1 goals / match - Pachuca
Toluca scores in 74% of matches (31 of 42 matches), while Pachuca keeps a clean sheet in 25% (10 of 40 matches).
Pachuca scores in 70% of matches (28 of 40 matches), while Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 31% (13 of 42 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Toluca
Over / Under — Pachuca
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Toluca is 19% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.55 pts / match - Toluca · 1.3 pts / match - Pachuca
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Toluca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 52%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Pachuca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 48%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (19 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (15 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Toluca
Pachuca
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| Toluca | Liga | Pachuca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.88 | 2.91 | ▼ 2.45 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 55% | 59% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 55% | ▼ 48% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 31% | 24% | • 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 69% | 72% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 79% | 76% | ▼ 65% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Toluca 0 - 2 - 1 Pachuca. Average goals 2.67, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Toluca vs Pachuca?
The Liga MX match finished Toluca 0:1 Pachuca. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Toluca and Pachuca?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Toluca won 0, Pachuca won 1 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 2.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Toluca vs Pachuca?
Toluca score 1.86 goals per game on average and Pachuca 1.35. The Liga MX average is 2.91 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 55% of Toluca's matches and 50% of Pachuca's.
What form are Toluca and Pachuca in?
Over the last 5 games Toluca have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Pachuca 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Toluca vs Pachuca?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Toluca vs Pachuca: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.