Toronto vs DC United: match statistics

Toronto have the home advantage, scoring an average of 2.13 goals per match, while DC United score 1.2 goals away from home. The hosts also register more shots on target (5.31 to 3.67), and their average xG stands at 1.51 compared with the visitors’ 1.34, pointing to greater attacking potential. In their last five matches, Toronto have scored 8 goals and won twice, while DC United have scored 4 and suffered 4 defeats. The hosts’ defence remains a concern, conceding an average of 2 goals at home and keeping no clean sheets there; however, the visitors have conceded as many as 12 goals in their last five matches. The high draw rates for both teams in these conditions — 56% of Toronto’s home matches and 47% of DC United’s away matches — mean a share of the points cannot be ruled out, but the hosts’ scoring form supports a Toronto win.

BTTS has landed in 67% of Toronto’s matches and 60% of DC United’s, with the rate at 60% across both teams’ last 5 games. Both defenses are allowing opponents chances: Toronto concede an average of 1.73 goals per match, compared with 1.80 for DC United; over their last 5 matches, those figures were 1.8 and 2.4, respectively. The hosts’ average of 1.33 goals and 1.54 xG supports the case for them to score, while DC United average 1.20 goals from 1.34 xG. Caution is warranted, as the visitors have scored just 4 goals in their last 5 matches and have failed to score in 33% of their season games. However, Toronto’s defensive frailties make both teams to score the more likely scenario.

Toronto average 1.33 goals per match, while DC United concede 1.80; Toronto’s xG is also 1.54, compared with 1.73 xG conceded by the visitors. DC United score an average of 1.20 goals, while Toronto concede 1.73, so the visitors also have a strong case to find the net. Over their last five matches, the teams conceded 1.8 and 2.4 goals per game, respectively, reinforcing the forecast of around 3.05 goals in total. Over 1.5 goals is the strongest pick: it has landed in 80% of Toronto’s matches and 73% of DC United’s, while the Over 2.5 goals line was cleared in 73% and 53%, respectively.

Toronto led at the break in 7 of 15 matches (47%), while DC United went into half-time with a lead just twice (13%), pointing to a home advantage in the first half. Toronto average 1.54 xG per match compared with the visitors’ 1.34 and record 5.13 shots on target versus DC United’s 3.67. Recent form also supports Toronto holding on to a lead: across their last five matches, Toronto scored an average of 1.6 goals, while DC United conceded 2.4 and lost 4 of those games. A half-time draw remains a notable alternative, as DC United were level at the break in 47% of their matches. However, Toronto’s more frequent leads at half-time, combined with the clear gap in recent results, make 1/1 the most likely HT/FT outcome.