Toronto vs Inter Miami: match statistics
Toronto vs Inter Miami: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Toronto played Inter Miami in MLS (United States). The match was played on 9 May 2026. Final score: 2:4.
Current form
Toronto: 0-4-1, 0.80 points/match. Inter Miami: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Toronto scores 1.64 and concedes 1.82 goals per match. Inter Miami scores 2.00 and concedes 1.73. League average: 3.18 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Toronto 82%, Inter Miami 73%. Over 2.5: Toronto 64%, Inter Miami 73%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 60%.
xG, shots and style
Inter Miami has higher xG: 1.80 vs 1.38. Toronto: 11.7 shots per match, Inter Miami: 16.2.
Match halves
Toronto: half-time lead 9%, second-half goals 1.36. Inter Miami: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 1.09.
Goals by minute
Toronto: 76-90+ (7 goals). Inter Miami: 76-90+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
MLS: 3.18 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 60%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict an Inter Miami win (2). Inter clearly holds the advantage in form and efficiency — in the last 5 matches the visitors scored 11 goals and averaged 1.6 points per game, while Toronto scored 9 goals and averaged 0.6 points per game. In season-long metrics Inter averages 2.00 goals per away match and has a 71% away win rate, whereas Toronto at home averages 1.88 goals per match, only a 25% win rate and as many as 63% draws at home. Defensively Toronto conceded 12 goals in the last 5 matches (2.4 per game) and 1.75 goals per home match on average, while Inter conceded 9 in the last 5 (1.8 per game) and 1.43 away, indicating a more stable away defense. Chance-creation stats are similar (around 12.6 shots and 5 on target for Toronto versus 12.86 shots and 5.14 on target for Inter), but Inter has slightly better conversion (16% vs 15%) and more possession (56% vs 49%), so I give the visitors the higher probability of winning.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Toronto has a seasonal BTTS rate of 100% and 100% in the last 5 matches, meaning both teams have scored in every game for this side. Inter Miami has a seasonal BTTS of 57% and 80% in the last 5, and in those five matches scored an average of 2.2 goals and conceded 1.8, so the visitors regularly find the net. Toronto concedes an average of 2.25 goals this season (2.4 in the last 5) and generates xG 2.48 per match versus Inter’s average xG allowed of 1.34, with averages of 22 shots and 8.75 on target for Toronto vs 12.86 and 5.14 for Inter, which suggests an exchange of goals. The hosts have 0% clean sheets this season, while Inter has 29% clean sheets, and the league average goals is 3.18, further supporting a Goal/Goal scenario. Based on this I assess BTTS - Yes probability at 82% and No at 18%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG and defensive data I expect approximately 3.25 total goals: home xG is 2.48 versus Miami's xG against 1.34 (expected 1.91 for Toronto), and Inter xG is 1.41 with xG against Toronto 1.26, yielding about 1.34 for the visitors. Toronto averages 22.0 shots and 8.75 on target per match versus Inter's 12.86 shots and 5.14 on target, confirming more chances created by the hosts. Seasonal rates show Toronto matches have 100% occurrences over 1.5 goals, Inter 86%, and over 2.5 rates are 75% for Toronto and 71% for Inter (last 5 matches: 80% and 60%). For these reasons I assign a high probability to Over 1.5 (95%) and a significant probability to Over 2.5 (74%), since the expected 3.25 goals is well above the 1.5 threshold and frequently exceeds 2.5 in the data. The best play is therefore Over 1.5 as the strongest signal, while the 3.5 line is more balanced (expected edge to Under: 55% vs 45%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
HT statistics show Toronto were level at the break in 75% of their matches and as many as 75% of their home games finish drawn, so a draw at half-time is the dominant signal. At the same time Inter Miami win 71% of away matches and average 2.29 points per game, scoring on average 1.29 goals after the break versus 0.75 for the hosts, which gives the visitors an advantage in the second half. Toronto generate higher xG (2.48 vs 1.41) and significantly more shots (22.0 vs 12.86), but convert them at only 9% versus Inter Miami’s 16%, so the hosts create chances more quickly which the visitors convert better. In the last five matches Inter Miami led at the break in 40% of games and have HT points of 1.8 versus Toronto’s 1.0; additionally the visitors scored 5 goals in minutes 76–90 compared to 3 conceded by Toronto, suggesting a decision after half-time. On this basis I recommend HT/FT X/2: draw at half-time and Inter Miami to win after the break.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Toronto | Inter Miami | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Inter Miami is 100% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Toronto · 1.6 pts / match - Inter Miami
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Inter Miami is 22% better for: goals scored per match.
1.64 goals / match - Toronto · 2 goals / match - Inter Miami
Inter Miami is 5% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.82 goals / match - Toronto · 1.73 goals / match - Inter Miami
Toronto scores in 91% of matches (10 of 11 matches), while Inter Miami keeps a clean sheet in 18% (2 of 11 matches).
Inter Miami scores in 82% of matches (9 of 11 matches), while Toronto keeps a clean sheet in 9% (1 of 11 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Toronto
Over / Under - Inter Miami
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Inter Miami is 86% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.73 pts / match - Toronto · 1.36 pts / match - Inter Miami
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Toronto - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 9% of matches and wins 27%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Inter Miami - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 45%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 3.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Toronto
Inter Miami
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS).
Teams vs league
| Toronto | Liga | Inter Miami | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.45 | 3.18 | ▲ 3.73 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 82% | 58% | ▲ 73% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 64% | 60% | ▲ 73% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 9% | 24% | ▼ 18% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 64% | 73% | • 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 82% | 78% | ▲ 91% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
FAQ
What was the result of Toronto vs Inter Miami?
The MLS match finished Toronto 2:4 Inter Miami. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Toronto vs Inter Miami?
Toronto score 1.64 goals per game on average and Inter Miami 2.00. The MLS average is 3.18 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 60% of games. Both teams score in 82% of Toronto's matches and 73% of Inter Miami's.
What form are Toronto and Inter Miami in?
Over the last 5 games Toronto have a 0-4-1 record (0.80 points per game) and Inter Miami 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Toronto vs Inter Miami?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.