Toronto vs Nashville SC: match statistics

Nashville SC are in excellent form, winning 4 and drawing 1 of their last five matches, scoring 12 goals and conceding just 3. Toronto are also unbeaten in their last five, but recorded as many as 3 draws during that run, with 9 goals scored and 7 conceded. The visitors’ away defensive record could prove decisive: they concede just 0.45 goals per match on average and keep a clean sheet in 64% of games, while Toronto have yet to keep a clean sheet at home and concede an average of 1.92 goals. The hosts are consistent in attack, averaging 1.92 goals scored at home with an xG of 1.43, but Nashville are capable of effectively limiting opponents despite an xG against of 1.22. Nashville’s overall season record—16 wins and just 2 defeats, with a 47:17 goal difference—points to a narrow victory, although Toronto’s high home draw rate increases the likelihood of the points being shared.

Toronto has a BTTS rate of 67% for the season and as high as 100% in its last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.8 goals but conceding 1.4. Nashville boasts a significantly stronger seasonal defense, keeping a clean sheet in 64% of matches and allowing an average of just 0.45 goals, which clearly supports the BTTS - No / No Goal scenario, meaning at least one team is expected not to score. However, the visitors’ current attacking form is convincing, as they have scored 12 goals in their last five matches, averaging 2.4 per game, with an xG of 1.70. Toronto averages 6.0 shots on target and scores 3.0 goals per home match, so even Nashville’s solid defense does not provide complete protection against conceding. The BTTS signal is only moderate, but both teams’ strong current finishing and Toronto’s weaker recent defense, allowing an average of 1.64 xG to opponents, marginally support BTTS - Yes.

A projected total of 2.65 goals points to a match with a realistic chance of producing 2–3 goals, but without strong grounds to expect four or more. Toronto averages 3.0 total goals per home match and has exceeded 2.5 goals in 83% of its games, while Nashville concedes just 0.45 goals per away match and keeps a clean sheet in 64% of its appearances. The visitors also have a very low rate of games going Over 3.5 goals, at 9%, compared with 91% of matches finishing below that line. The last five matches for both teams were more open, with 60% of their games going Over 2.5 goals, although Nashville conceded just 0.6 goals per match during this period. The strongest edge therefore lies with Under 3.5: Toronto’s attacking potential should be enough to produce goals, but Nashville’s defensive organization away from home limits the risk of a very high-scoring game.

Toronto has exceptionally strong home numbers: it has won 92% of its matches, averages 3.0 goals scored, and is yet to suffer a defeat. The hosts led at the break in 7 of 12 matches, scoring an average of 1.25 goals before half-time, while Nashville averages just 0.45 goals in this period away from home. Toronto also creates significantly more danger, averaging 6.0 shots on target compared with the opponent’s 3.36, as well as an xG of 1.60 versus Nashville’s 1.18. Nashville is very solid defensively, conceding just 0.45 goals on average and keeping a clean sheet in 64% of matches, which increases the likelihood of a draw at half-time. Despite the visitors’ strong current run, including 4 wins in their last 5 matches, Toronto’s season-long superiority and its effectiveness after the break, when it averages 1.75 goals, provide the strongest support for the HT/FT 1/1 scenario: the hosts to lead at the break and win the match.