Toronto vs New York City: match statistics

Toronto come into the match in clearly better form: they have picked up 8 points in their last five games (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat), while New York City have managed just 1 point, losing four times. At home, the hosts average 2.0 goals per match and have failed to score in none of their games, whereas the visitors average just 1.0 goal away from home and draw a blank in 20% of their matches. Toronto are also significantly more clinical, converting 17% of their shots into goals compared with 10% for New York City, while averaging 4.73 shots on target per match against 4.2. However, the hosts remain vulnerable defensively, conceding an average of 2.0 goals and keeping no clean sheets, which makes a draw a realistic alternative. Nevertheless, the visitors’ poor run, featuring 6 goals scored and 10 conceded in their last five matches, points to a narrow advantage for Toronto.

The signal for both teams to score is very strong, as the seasonal BTTS rate stands at 73% for Toronto and 70% for New York City, compared with the league average of 63%. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in 100% of games, with Toronto averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while New York City scored 1.2 and allowed opponents 2.0 goals on average. The hosts are particularly dangerous offensively at home, averaging 2.27 goals, 5.73 shots on target and an xG of 1.55, while the visitors have kept a clean sheet in only 10% of their matches this season. New York City should also create chances against a Toronto defense that has kept a clean sheet in just 18% of games, with its average xG conceded over the last five appearances standing at a high 1.86. The BTTS - Yes scenario is therefore more likely than the BTTS - No outcome, in which at least one team fails to score.

Toronto score an average of 2.27 goals per match, while New York City have conceded as many as 2.0 goals in their last five games, clearly supporting the hosts’ scoring output. The visitors average 1.0 goal, but Toronto allow opponents 1.64 goals per match and have kept a clean sheet in only 18% of games. In the teams’ last five matches, Over 2.5 goals landed 80% of the time for both sides, and both teams scored in every one of those games. However, the baseline signal for Over 1.5 is the strongest: Toronto have exceeded this line in 100% of their season matches, compared with 80% for New York City, so the expected total of 3.05 goals gives this side a clear edge.

Toronto have a clear advantage in the first halves: they were leading at the break in 55% of matches, scoring an average of 1.45 goals while conceding just 0.55. Away from home, New York City were leading at half-time in only 30% of matches, while in 40% they went into the break behind; their average first-half attacking output was 0.60 goals. The hosts also create more chances over the course of the match, with an xG of 1.55 compared with the opponents’ 1.22, and average 5.73 shots on target versus NYC’s 4.20. Toronto are in better current form, averaging 1.6 points per game over their last five league matches, while the visitors have failed to win any of those games and lost 80% of them. The most likely scenario is Toronto leading at the break and holding on for the win, although the hosts’ high average of 1.64 goals conceded leaves a significant chance of a turnaround.