Torpedo Kutaisi vs Saburtalo: match statistics

Torpedo Kutaisi have the home advantage: they average 1.70 goals at home with an xG of 1.50, while Saburtalo allow opponents an xG of 1.38 away from home. The hosts are also more defensively consistent at home, conceding an average of 1.00 goal compared with Saburtalo’s 1.11 away from home, and keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches. Saburtalo sit higher in the table in 3rd place and have 10 wins this season, but their current run consists of just 1 win and 3 draws in their last 5 matches. Torpedo have lost 3 of their last 5 games, but at home they record 54% possession, average 11.8 shots and have a positive goal difference of +7. I give the hosts a marginal edge, although the teams’ closely matched scoring averages and Torpedo’s 6 draws this season leave a significant risk of the points being shared.

The BTTS signal is moderately positive: Torpedo Kutaisi saw both teams score in 60% of their matches, while Saburtalo recorded 44%, against a league average of 57%. The hosts have conceded as many as 1.8 goals per match in their last five games and allowed opponents an xG of 1.55, which clearly increases Saburtalo’s chances of scoring despite their average of 1.2 goals during this period. Torpedo creates an average xG of 1.48, while Saburtalo allows opponents an xG of 1.38 and keeps a clean sheet in only 33% of matches. The visitors are clinical, converting 17% of their shots into goals compared with 12% for the hosts, so even with Torpedo’s strong season-long defensive record of 0.8 goals conceded, the scenario in which both sides score remains more likely.

The season profiles of both teams point to a moderate goal count: Torpedo average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded, while Saburtalo score 1.67 goals and concede 1.11. The hosts’ xG stands at 1.48, compared with Saburtalo’s 1.38 xG conceded, while the visitors create 1.35 xG against 1.21 xG allowed by Torpedo, supporting a scenario of around 2–3 goals. The 3.5 line has not been exceeded in 90% of Torpedo’s matches and 78% of Saburtalo’s games, while neither team has recorded a match this season with more than four goals scored by their own attack. Torpedo’s last five matches have been more open, averaging 3.2 goals per game with 80% of results finishing Over 2.5, but Saburtalo have averaged 2.4 total goals during this period, so the signal for Under 3.5 remains the strongest.

Torpedo Kutaisi have a clearly stronger first-half profile: they led at the break in 50% of their matches and conceded an average of just 0.1 goals before half-time, while Saburtalo allowed opponents to score an average of 0.78 goals in the first half. The hosts kept a clean sheet at half-time in 90% of their matches, compared with 44% for the visitors, reinforcing the scenario of an early Torpedo lead. Across the season, Torpedo average 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Saburtalo, despite scoring 1.67 goals per match, lost as many as 44% of their games. However, Saburtalo are dangerous after the interval, averaging 0.78 goals scored and just 0.33 conceded, which is why draw or turnaround outcomes receive a significant share of the probability. Nevertheless, the strongest individual signal remains Torpedo’s advantage before half-time and their ability to maintain that lead until the final whistle, hence the selection of 1/1.