Torque vs Cerro Largo: match statistics

Torque come into this match in significantly better form: they have won 4 of their last 5 games, scoring 11 goals and conceding just 4, while Cerro Largo have failed to win any of their last five matches, drawing four. At home, the hosts average 1.83 goals per game, compared with just 0.69 for the visitors away from home, while Cerro Largo fail to score in as many as 54% of their away matches. Torque also create more in the final third, averaging 11.08 shots and 4.5 on target per game, compared with 9.38 and 3.46 respectively for the visitors. The hosts also hold the edge in chance quality, with an average home xG of 1.42, while Cerro Largo’s defence allows opponents an xG of 1.62. The visitors concede only 1.15 goals per away match and have kept a clean sheet in 31% of those games, so a draw remains a realistic scenario; however, Torque’s current form and attacking numbers point towards a home win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Cerro Largo’s seasonal scoring record: the visitors average just 0.69 goals per match and have failed to score in 54% of their games. Their season-long BTTS rate is only 23%, significantly below Torque’s 62% and the league-wide figure of 50%. Torque concede an average of 1.00 goals, and just 0.8 over their last 5 matches, which, combined with the opponents’ limited attacking output, increases the risk of another Cerro Largo game without a goal. Although the visitors recorded BTTS in 100% of their last five matches and their xG stands at 1.19, their average goals scored over that period remains only 1.0, while the hosts are in good form after scoring 11 goals in 5 matches. The more likely scenario is therefore one in which Torque score, but at least one team — primarily Cerro Largo — fails to find the net.

Cerro Largo scores just 0.69 goals per match this season and has failed to score in 54% of its games, significantly limiting the potential for a high-scoring game. Torque is in good form, with 11 goals in its last 5 matches, but its opponent concedes an average of only 1.15 goals per game and keeps a clean sheet in 31% of its appearances. Historically, both teams have had a maximum of three goals in 85% of their matches, while only 15% of their games went over 3.5. The projected total of 2.30 goals reflects the hosts’ attacking advantage, but also the visitors’ low finishing efficiency, as they convert just 7% of their shots into goals. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5, because even with Torque’s attacking form, a scenario featuring four or more goals remains significantly less likely.

The strongest signal points to Torque leading at the break and maintaining their advantage until full time: the hosts have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Cerro Largo have not won any and have drawn 4 of those 5. During this period, Torque were ahead at half-time in 60% of their matches, whereas the visitors were trailing after 45 minutes in 80%; on average, the hosts scored 1.2 goals before the break, compared with just 0.2 for Cerro Largo. The difference in quality is also evident across the last five matches overall, with Torque averaging 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while their opponents recorded averages of 1.0 and 1.2, respectively. Over the season, Cerro Largo have failed to score in 54% of their matches, and their shot conversion rate stands at just 7%, compared with 14% for Torque. After the break, the hosts are particularly dangerous, averaging 1.0 goal and winning the second half in 54% of matches, which makes the 1/1 scenario the most likely outcome.