Torque vs Nacional: match statistics
Torque is showing solid home form with a 67% win rate and just one loss in their last five matches overall. The hosts have a positive goal difference at home (+2) and a low goals conceded rate (averaging 1 per match), indicating a stable defense. Nacional shows instability in away matches with a 50% loss rate and a negative goal difference (-1), and their recent form (1.2 points per match) is clearly weaker than Torque's (2 points per match). Although the visitors have a better average xG (1.4 vs 1.25) and ball possession (59%), their issues with away consistency and the strong performance of the hosts at their own stadium speak in favor of a Torque victory. We expect a balanced match, but the home advantage and better form give the hosts a real chance for three points.
Torque vs Nacional: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Torque played Nacional in Primera División (Uruguay). The match was played on 28 March 2026. Final score: 2:3.
Current form
Torque: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Nacional: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Torque scores 1.38 and concedes 0.88 goals per match. Nacional scores 1.38 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.28 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Torque 38%, Nacional 50%. Over 2.5: Torque 50%, Nacional 50%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 45%.
xG, shots and style
Nacional has higher xG: 1.51 vs 1.26. Torque: 10.3 shots per match, Nacional: 12.6.
Match halves
Torque: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.88. Nacional: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.75.
Goals by minute
Torque: 46-60 (3 goals). Nacional: 61-75 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.28 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 45%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-2. Average goals 3.67, BTTS 67%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Torque is showing solid home form with a 67% win rate and just one loss in their last five matches overall. The hosts have a positive goal difference at home (+2) and a low goals conceded rate (averaging 1 per match), indicating a stable defense. Nacional shows instability in away matches with a 50% loss rate and a negative goal difference (-1), and their recent form (1.2 points per match) is clearly weaker than Torque's (2 points per match). Although the visitors have a better average xG (1.4 vs 1.25) and ball possession (59%), their issues with away consistency and the strong performance of the hosts at their own stadium speak in favor of a Torque victory. We expect a balanced match, but the home advantage and better form give the hosts a real chance for three points.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The data indicates a strong defensive profile for Torque: averaging just 0.5 goals conceded per match this season, with a 50% clean sheet rate and a very low BTTS percentage (25%). Their last 5 matches show an even stronger trend (0.4 GA and 20% BTTS). While Nacional boasts a high seasonal BTTS rate (75%) and has no matches without a scored goal (FTS 0%), their away scoring average is 1.25 goals. Now they face a defense with a low concession rate. Furthermore, Nacional's own defense appears less stable in results (1.5 goals conceded per match), which favors a goal for the hosts but does not guarantee a reply from the visitors. Recent goal form also supports a one-sided scenario: Torque averaged 0.8 goals scored in their last 5 (L5), while Nacional conceded 1.2, more often leading to a scoreline with only one team scoring. With the league's BTTS average at 45%, a matchup against such a defensively solid Torque side shifts the probability towards "BTTS: No".
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The goal model indicates approximately 2.32 goals per match (Torque 1.33 vs Nacional 0.99), which naturally favors lower lines. Torque are very solid defensively (0.5 goals conceded per match, 50% CS), and in 100% of the team's matches, there have been a maximum of 3 goals (Under 3.5 = 100%). On Nacional's side, there is a higher Over 2.5 risk (75%), but simultaneously no matches with Over 4.5 and 75% Under 3.5, which limits the potential for a very high-scoring game. Shot statistics and xG (xG for 1.51 vs 1.40 and xG against approx. 1.05 vs 1.03) suggest a moderate tempo and no clear signal for a 4+ goal match. Additionally, the league averages 2.27 goals per match, supporting an under 3.5 scenario. Therefore, the strongest market is Under 3.5 with the highest estimated probability.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal is the scenario of a draw at half-time and a Torque win at full-time, as the hosts have frequently been level at HT in their last 5 matches (80%) and have shown low goal production in the first half (0.2 goals scored at HT). Simultaneously, Torque possesses a clearly superior baseline defensive quality at home this season (0.5 goals conceded per match, 50% clean sheets) and a better PPG (1.75) compared to Nacional away from home, who have a high conceded average of 1.5. Nacional's profile favors a resolution after the break: a high BTTS rate (75%) and a low clean sheet percentage (25%) indicate they often allow opponents chances and concede during the match. Second-half data strengthens Torque's advantage (conceded_2hg_avg 0.25 and cs_2hg_percentage 75%) while simultaneously highlighting Nacional's weaker defense after halftime (conceded_2hg_avg 0.75, cs_2hg_percentage 25%). Therefore, the most likely HT/FT pattern is a balanced first half, with the match tipping in favor of the hosts after the sides change.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Torque | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Torque is 67% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Torque · 1.2 pts / match - Nacional
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Torque is 14% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.88 goals / match - Torque · 1 goals / match - Nacional
Torque scores in 75% of matches (6 of 8 matches), while Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 38% (3 of 8 matches).
Nacional scores in 88% of matches (7 of 8 matches), while Torque keeps a clean sheet in 50% (4 of 8 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Torque
Over / Under - Nacional
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nacional is 44% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.13 pts / match - Torque · 1.63 pts / match - Nacional
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Torque - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 100% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (3 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Torque
Nacional
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Torque | Liga | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.25 | 2.28 | ▲ 2.38 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 38% | 45% | ▲ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 45% | ▲ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 32% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 75% | 66% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 63% | 75% | • 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Torque 1 - 0 - 2 Nacional. Average goals 3.67, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Torque vs Nacional?
The Primera División match finished Torque 2:3 Nacional. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Torque and Nacional?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Torque won 1, Nacional won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Torque vs Nacional?
Torque score 1.38 goals per game on average and Nacional 1.38. The Primera División average is 2.28 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 45% of games. Both teams score in 38% of Torque's matches and 50% of Nacional's.
What form are Torque and Nacional in?
Over the last 5 games Torque have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Nacional 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Torque vs Nacional?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.