Torque vs Wanderers: match statistics

Torque come into the match in better form, having won 4 of their last 5 fixtures, scoring 6 goals and conceding just 3, while Wanderers have recorded 3 wins, a draw and a defeat with a 7:7 goal difference. At home, the hosts average 1.55 goals per game, more than Wanderers do away from home (1.38), and they also create slightly higher-quality chances: their average xG stands at 1.41 compared with the visitors’ 1.43, although their opponents carry a higher xG against figure, 1.40 versus Torque’s 1.11. Torque enjoy more possession at home, averaging 53% of the match, and register 4.36 shots on target per game, compared with 3.92 for Wanderers. The hosts’ defence realistically allows 1.55 goals conceded per match, so the advantage is not decisive, but Wanderers’ weaker away goal difference (-3) and Torque’s excellent current form point towards a home win. The match could be open, as both teams concede more than 1.5 goals per game on average in their respective away and home fixtures.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Torque’s very solid current defensive form: in their last 5 matches, the team conceded only 3 goals, averaging 0.6 per game, while both teams scored in just 20% of those fixtures. Across the entire season, Torque have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches and concede an average of 0.83 goals, which clearly limits Wanderers’ chances of scoring. Wanderers do possess attacking potential, averaging 1.38 goals with an xG of 1.43, but they face a home defence whose recent xG conceded stands at just 1.13. The hosts are also not especially consistent in attack, as their season percentage of matches in which both teams scored is 42%, below the league average of 51%. Therefore, the scenario in which at least one team fails to score is slightly more likely than a Goal/Goal outcome.

Torque concede an average of just 0.83 goals per match and have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games, limiting Wanderers’ potential despite their average of 1.38 goals scored. The home side are not a particularly high-scoring team either, averaging 1.08 goals, although Wanderers’ defense concedes 1.62 goals per match. In their last five appearances, Torque have conceded just 3 goals, and their matches have gone Over 2.5 goals in only 20% of cases. Over the course of the season, the 3.5-goal line has not been surpassed in 92% of Torque’s matches and 77% of Wanderers’ games, making Under 3.5 the market with by far the strongest statistical support.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Torque victory, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 6 of their 12 matches, or 50%, and in 4 of their last 5 games. Over that same recent period, Torque failed to score before the break but conceded only 0.2 goals per match, clearly supporting a cautious opening. After half-time, the hosts improve to an average of 1.2 goals scored in their last five appearances, while conceding just 0.4. Wanderers have a higher season-long average xG, 1.43 compared with 1.33, but concede an average of 1.62 goals per match, whereas Torque concede only 0.83. In addition, Torque have won 4 of their last 5 matches and have averaged 2.4 points per game after the break, so they should turn a balanced contest in their favour in the second half.