Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace: match statistics

Tottenham are the favourites, although they have won only 25% of their home matches so far, because Crystal Palace average just 0.75 goals away from home and have failed to score in 75% of their matches. The hosts create more chances: their home xG stands at 1.88 compared with the visitors’ away xG of 1.10, while they average 5 and 3.5 shots on target respectively. Palace also concede an average of 2.25 goals away from home, with opponents posting an xG of 1.92, whereas Tottenham score 1.25 goals per home match from an xG of 1.88, pointing to scope for improved finishing. The last five matches also favour the hosts: they have collected 7 points and scored 9 goals, while the visitors have taken 4 points and conceded 13. The draw remains a significant risk, as Tottenham have failed to score in half of their home matches, but Palace’s weaker defence tips the forecast in their favour.

Tottenham concede an average of 2.5 goals at home and have yet to keep a clean sheet there, giving Crystal Palace a genuine chance of scoring. The visitors have averaged 1.4 goals across their last five matches, although their away scoring average is just 0.75, and they have failed to score in 75% of their away games. On the other hand, Tottenham average 1.5 goals at home, while Palace concede 2.25 goals away, so a goal from the hosts looks likely. BTTS - Yes has landed in 80% of Tottenham’s last five matches and 60% of Palace’s games. Despite the visitors’ poor away scoring record, this gives a slight edge to the scenario in which both teams score.

Tottenham score an average of 1.5 goals at home, while Crystal Palace concede 2.25 away, giving the hosts a solid platform to find the net. Over their last five matches, Tottenham have averaged 1.8 goals with an xG of 1.81, while Palace have conceded 2.6 goals per game. The visitors score less frequently away from home, averaging 0.75 goals, but Tottenham concede 2.5 goals at home and have not kept a clean sheet there, so Palace getting on the scoresheet cannot be ruled out either. At least two goals were scored in 100% of Tottenham’s included home matches and 75% of Palace’s away matches; with a projected total of 3.10 goals, Over 1.5 goals is the strongest pick. The Over 2.5 line is less certain, although it landed in 60% of Tottenham’s last five matches and 80% of Palace’s games.

The strongest pre-match signal for the first half is Crystal Palace’s away weakness: the visitors were trailing at half-time in 3 of their 4 matches and conceded an average of 1.5 goals before the break. Tottenham scored an average of 0.75 goals before half-time at home, while Palace managed only 0.25, making a home lead at the break more likely than an away lead. Tottenham’s more effective home attack also supports the expectation that they will maintain their advantage: they average 1.5 goals per match at home compared with Palace’s 0.75 away, with xG of 1.37 versus 1.10. Over their last five matches, Tottenham scored an average of 1.8 goals, while Palace conceded 2.6, strengthening the case for a home win. The risk of a draw at half-time remains significant, as Tottenham failed to score in the first half in 4 of their last 5 matches, but Palace’s away results before the break most strongly support the 1/1 scenario.