Toulouse vs Monaco: match statistics
Toulouse vs Monaco: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Toulouse played Monaco in Ligue 1 (France). The match was played on 25 April 2026. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Toulouse: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Monaco: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Toulouse scores 1.37 and concedes 1.40 goals per match. Monaco scores 1.73 and concedes 1.50. League average: 2.80 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Toulouse 43%, Monaco 63%. Over 2.5: Toulouse 50%, Monaco 63%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Monaco has higher xG: 1.47 vs 1.38. Toulouse: 12.5 shots per match, Monaco: 12.5.
Match halves
Toulouse: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.77. Monaco: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 1.17.
Goals by minute
Toulouse: 76-90+ (13 goals). Monaco: 61-75 (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ligue 1: 2.80 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a Monaco win ('2'), because the visitors are clearly in better form — Monaco have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 5 matches and average 2.0 points per game, while Toulouse have won only 1 of their last 5 and lost 4 (averaging 0.6 pts). This season Monaco have scored 52 goals versus Toulouse's 41, and in the last 5 matches the visitors have scored 9 goals compared to the hosts' 5, despite similar goals-per-game figures (Toulouse 1.4 at home vs Monaco 1.36 away). Defensively Toulouse perform better at home — conceding 1.4 goals per game and keeping clean sheets in 40% of matches, whereas Monaco concede 1.64 on the road and have only 14% clean sheets; however xG shows parity in chance quality (Toulouse 1.55 xG at home vs Monaco 1.46 xG away). Monaco dominate possession more often (52% possession away vs 43% for Toulouse at home) and have a superior wins record this season (15 vs 10), which gives them a tactical edge. Based on this I assess the probability of a Monaco win at 55%, a draw at 20% and a Toulouse win at 25%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams show high seasonal BTTS rates: Toulouse 63% and Monaco 64%, with the last 5 matches at 60% for Toulouse and 80% for Monaco, signaling BTTS clearly above the league average of 49%. Monaco keeps a clean sheet in only 14% of matches, while Toulouse fails to score in just 6% of games — meaning Monaco concedes in about 86% of matches and Toulouse scores in about 94% of cases — a strong argument for Both Teams To Score. Both teams’ xG are similar (1.48 for Toulouse vs 1.46 for Monaco), while xG against shows greater vulnerability for Monaco (1.63 vs 1.35 for Toulouse), suggesting Monaco allows more scoring chances. Toulouse has higher conversion rate (17% vs 11%) and averages 4.63 shots on target versus 4.14 for Monaco; in the last 5 matches Toulouse concedes an average of 2.8 goals compared to 1.6 conceded by Monaco, which favors an open game with goals at both ends. Considering also the high share of matches over 2.5 goals (69% and 57%) and combinations of over2.5 and BTTS (63% and 56%), I recommend a BTTS = Yes bet with a probability assessment of 72% vs 28%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Estimated xG for this match is approximately 1.56 for Toulouse and 1.40 for Monaco, totaling ~2.96 expected goals and indicating a lean towards Over 2.5 goals. Toulouse score 2.06 goals per home game on average, while Monaco score 1.36 away; additionally Toulouse concede 1.38 at home and Monaco concede 1.64 on the road, increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. Season rates for matches over 2.5 are 69% for Toulouse and 57% for Monaco, and in the last 5 meetings both teams produced Over 2.5 in 80% of cases, reinforcing the Over 2.5 signal. Both teams register high BTTS: 63% (Toulouse) and 64% (Monaco), and Toulouse has a higher shot conversion rate of 17% versus Monaco’s 11% with a similar shot volume (12.44 vs 12.57). Based on this I recommend backing Over 2.5 as the strongest signal (probability ~74%), with a very high probability for Over 1.5 (~92%) and a moderate probability for Over 3.5 (~42%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Toulouse led at the break in 38% of matches and averages 0.75 goals in the first half, while Monaco averages only 0.36 first-half goals, giving the home side an advantage in the opening 45 minutes. Over the full match Toulouse win 63% of home games and record 2.0 points per home match, whereas Monaco win 36% of away fixtures and have 1.29 PPG, so season-long numbers favour the hosts. After the break Toulouse score on average 1.31 goals and concede 0.75, with xG closely aligned (1.48 vs 1.46) and better finishing from the home side (17% vs 11%), which suggests that if Toulouse hold a lead at half-time they have a strong chance to maintain or extend it. Form must be considered: in the last five matches Toulouse have only a 20% win rate (1/5), while Monaco are at 60% (3/5), which increases the risk of a turnaround; nevertheless the HT advantage and the hosts’ shot efficiency appear decisive. Overall the strongest signal is Toulouse leading at half-time and winning the match, therefore I recommend HT/FT 1/1.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Toulouse | Monaco | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Monaco is 67% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Toulouse · 2 pts / match - Monaco
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Monaco is 26% better for: goals scored per match.
1.37 goals / match - Toulouse · 1.73 goals / match - Monaco
Toulouse is 7% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.4 goals / match - Toulouse · 1.5 goals / match - Monaco
Toulouse scores in 67% of matches (20 of 30 matches), while Monaco keeps a clean sheet in 23% (7 of 30 matches).
Monaco scores in 80% of matches (24 of 30 matches), while Toulouse keeps a clean sheet in 30% (9 of 30 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Toulouse
Over / Under - Monaco
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Monaco is 9% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.13 pts / match - Toulouse · 1.23 pts / match - Monaco
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Toulouse - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Monaco - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -6 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -4 | +5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Toulouse
Monaco
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligue 1).
Teams vs league
| Toulouse | Liga | Monaco | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.77 | 2.80 | ▲ 3.23 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 43% | 49% | ▲ 63% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 52% | ▲ 63% |
| Clean sheets | • 30% | 29% | ▼ 23% |
| Goal before half-time | • 70% | 71% | ▼ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 70% | 77% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Toulouse 0 - 0 - 1 Monaco. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Toulouse vs Monaco?
The Ligue 1 match finished Toulouse 2:2 Monaco. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Toulouse vs Monaco?
Toulouse score 1.37 goals per game on average and Monaco 1.73. The Ligue 1 average is 2.80 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 43% of Toulouse's matches and 63% of Monaco's.
What form are Toulouse and Monaco in?
Over the last 5 games Toulouse have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Monaco 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Toulouse vs Monaco?
The statistical background for Toulouse vs Monaco — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.