Toulouse vs Nice: match statistics
Toulouse is showing solid home form with a balanced record of 33% wins, 33% draws, and 33% losses, though their recent performance across the last five matches has been excellent (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). The hosts maintain a neutral goal difference at home and successfully keep clean sheets in 44% of their home fixtures. Conversely, Nice displays very poor away form with only a 13% win rate, a 75% loss rate, and a disastrous goal difference of -10 on the road. The visitors have failed to keep a single clean sheet away and concede an average of 2.25 goals per match, which, combined with their poor recent run (1 win in the last 5 matches), puts them in a disadvantageous position. xG statistics also favor Toulouse (1.54 to 1.1), which, given the home advantage, gives the hosts a real chance of securing three points, although Nice's scoring ability could lead to a competitive scoreline.
Toulouse vs Nice: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Toulouse played Nice in Ligue 1 (France). The match was played on 17 January 2026. Final score: 5:1.
Current form
Toulouse: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Nice: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Toulouse scores 1.41 and concedes 1.29 goals per match. Nice scores 1.18 and concedes 1.76. League average: 2.83 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Toulouse 41%, Nice 65%. Over 2.5: Toulouse 53%, Nice 53%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
Toulouse has higher xG: 1.32 vs 1.26. Toulouse: 11.9 shots per match, Nice: 11.6.
Match halves
Toulouse: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 1.00. Nice: half-time lead 41%, second-half goals 0.41.
Goals by minute
Toulouse: 76-90+ (9 goals). Nice: 31-45+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ligue 1: 2.83 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Toulouse is showing solid home form with a balanced record of 33% wins, 33% draws, and 33% losses, though their recent performance across the last five matches has been excellent (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). The hosts maintain a neutral goal difference at home and successfully keep clean sheets in 44% of their home fixtures. Conversely, Nice displays very poor away form with only a 13% win rate, a 75% loss rate, and a disastrous goal difference of -10 on the road. The visitors have failed to keep a single clean sheet away and concede an average of 2.25 goals per match, which, combined with their poor recent run (1 win in the last 5 matches), puts them in a disadvantageous position. xG statistics also favor Toulouse (1.54 to 1.1), which, given the home advantage, gives the hosts a real chance of securing three points, although Nice's scoring ability could lead to a competitive scoreline.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Toulouse | Nice | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Toulouse is 600% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Toulouse · 0.2 pts / match - Nice
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toulouse is 19% better for: goals scored per match.
1.41 goals / match - Toulouse · 1.18 goals / match - Nice
Toulouse is 36% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.29 goals / match - Toulouse · 1.76 goals / match - Nice
Toulouse scores in 71% of matches (12 of 17 matches), while Nice keeps a clean sheet in 12% (2 of 17 matches).
Nice scores in 76% of matches (13 of 17 matches), while Toulouse keeps a clean sheet in 35% (6 of 17 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Toulouse
Over / Under - Nice
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nice is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.06 pts / match - Toulouse · 1.41 pts / match - Nice
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Toulouse - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Nice - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 41% of matches and wins 29%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -6 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Toulouse
Nice
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligue 1).
Teams vs league
| Toulouse | Liga | Nice | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.71 | 2.83 | ▲ 2.94 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 41% | 49% | ▲ 65% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 53% | 51% | ▲ 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 35% | 28% | ▼ 12% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 65% | 69% | ▲ 82% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 71% | 81% | ▲ 94% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Toulouse 1 - 0 - 0 Nice. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Toulouse vs Nice?
The Ligue 1 match finished Toulouse 5:1 Nice. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Toulouse vs Nice?
Toulouse score 1.41 goals per game on average and Nice 1.18. The Ligue 1 average is 2.83 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 41% of Toulouse's matches and 65% of Nice's.
What form are Toulouse and Nice in?
Over the last 5 games Toulouse have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Nice 0-1-4 (0.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Toulouse vs Nice?
The statistical background for Toulouse vs Nice — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.