Toulouse vs Olympique Lyonnais: match statistics

Toulouse sit 17th, while Olympique Lyonnais are 11th, but current form marginally favors the hosts: they have collected 7 points from their last five matches, compared with 6 for their opponents. Both teams have won 2 of their last 5 games, although Toulouse conceded 7 goals during that period—an average of 1.4 per match—compared with Lyon’s 9, or 1.8 per game. Lyon were slightly more clinical, scoring 6 goals to Toulouse’s 5, but their run of three consecutive defeats prior to the most recent victory highlights clear inconsistency. In the absence of complete home-and-away data and with the teams in comparable form, the visitors’ defensive weakness offsets their advantage in the table, making a draw the most likely outcome.

The signal for BTTS - Yes is moderately positive, as Toulouse recorded both teams scoring in 60% of their last 5 matches, while Lyon did so in 40%. During this period, the hosts averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, whereas Lyon scored 1.2 goals but allowed opponents 1.8 goals per match. Lyon’s xG stands at 1.40, higher than Toulouse’s 1.08, supporting their chances of scoring despite playing away. At the same time, both teams have experienced defensive issues, conceding a combined 16 goals in their last 10 appearances, which makes a goal for both sides marginally more likely.

In their last five matches, Toulouse averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Lyon scored 1.2 goals but allowed opponents to score 1.8. Lyon’s defence is therefore clearly vulnerable, and combined with the hosts’ attacking output, this points to approximately 1.2 goals for Toulouse. Lyon created chances worth an average of 1.40 xG per match, compared with 1.04 xG conceded by Toulouse, supporting a forecast of around 1.3 goals for the visitors. At least three goals were scored in 60% of Toulouse’s last five matches and in as many as 80% of Lyon’s matches, but the projected total of 2.50 points more decisively towards Over 1.5 goals than towards higher lines. Over 1.5 has the edge due to both teams’ recurring defensive problems and a combined average of 2.4 goals conceded per match in their recent runs.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Toulouse win at full-time, as the hosts have averaged 1.0 goals scored over their last five matches, while Lyon have conceded as many as 1.8 goals per game. In the first halves, both teams had identical figures: averaging 0.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, which supports an even score after 45 minutes. Toulouse have lost only 2 of their last 5 matches, whereas Lyon have suffered 3 defeats over the same period, while the hosts have averaged 1.4 points per match compared with the visitors’ 1.2. After the break, Lyon conceded an average of 1.2 goals, clearly more than Toulouse, who conceded 0.8, meaning the greater risk of a late turnaround lies with the visitors.