Toulouse vs Olympique Marseille: match statistics
Olympique Marseille sits in 4th place in the table and shows a significantly better overall record (13 wins) than Toulouse (8 wins), who occupy the 11th position. Although Marseille has weaker away form (42% wins away, 50% losses), their advantage in possession (57% vs 43%) and higher number of goals scored this season (51 vs 33) indicate their offensive potential. Toulouse has a decent defense at home (1.33 goals conceded on average), but poor form in the last 5 matches (1 win, 0.8 PPG) and the fact they fail to score in 33% of home matches weaken their chances. Expected goals (xG) are similar for both teams, but Marseille's greater experience and squad quality tip the scales of victory in their favor. I expect a difficult but winning match for the visitors with a result of 1-2 or 0-1.
Toulouse vs Olympique Marseille: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Toulouse play Olympique Marseille in Ligue 1 (France). The match date is 7 March 2026 at 21:05. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Toulouse: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Olympique Marseille: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Toulouse scores 1.42 and concedes 1.39 goals per match. Olympique Marseille scores 1.85 and concedes 1.32. League average: 2.83 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Toulouse 48%, Olympique Marseille 50%. Over 2.5: Toulouse 55%, Olympique Marseille 62%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Olympique Marseille has higher xG: 1.72 vs 1.41. Toulouse: 12.8 shots per match, Olympique Marseille: 15.1.
Match halves
Toulouse: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.82. Olympique Marseille: half-time lead 41%, second-half goals 1.09.
Goals by minute
Toulouse: 76-90+ (16 goals). Olympique Marseille: 76-90+ (17 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ligue 1: 2.83 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-1-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Match description
Olympique Marseille sits in 4th place in the table and shows a significantly better overall record (13 wins) than Toulouse (8 wins), who occupy the 11th position. Although Marseille has weaker away form (42% wins away, 50% losses), their advantage in possession (57% vs 43%) and higher number of goals scored this season (51 vs 33) indicate their offensive potential. Toulouse has a decent defense at home (1.33 goals conceded on average), but poor form in the last 5 matches (1 win, 0.8 PPG) and the fact they fail to score in 33% of home matches weaken their chances. Expected goals (xG) are similar for both teams, but Marseille's greater experience and squad quality tip the scales of victory in their favor. I expect a difficult but winning match for the visitors with a result of 1-2 or 0-1.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Toulouse | Olympique Marseille | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Olympique Marseille is 30% better for: goals scored per match.
1.42 goals / match - Toulouse · 1.85 goals / match - Olympique Marseille
Olympique Marseille is 5% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.39 goals / match - Toulouse · 1.32 goals / match - Olympique Marseille
Toulouse scores in 70% of matches (23 of 33 matches), while Olympique Marseille keeps a clean sheet in 26% (9 of 34 matches).
Olympique Marseille scores in 76% of matches (26 of 34 matches), while Toulouse keeps a clean sheet in 27% (9 of 33 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Toulouse
Over / Under — Olympique Marseille
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Olympique Marseille is 38% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.15 pts / match - Toulouse · 1.59 pts / match - Olympique Marseille
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Toulouse - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Olympique Marseille - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 41% of matches and wins 53%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (16 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (17 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Toulouse
Olympique Marseille
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligue 1).
Teams vs league
| Toulouse | Liga | Olympique Marseille | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.82 | 2.83 | ▲ 3.18 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 48% | 51% | • 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 55% | 53% | ▲ 62% |
| Clean sheets | • 27% | 28% | ▼ 26% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 73% | 70% | • 71% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 73% | 79% | ▲ 85% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Toulouse 0 - 1 - 0 Olympique Marseille. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Toulouse vs Olympique Marseille?
The Ligue 1 match finished Toulouse 0:1 Olympique Marseille. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Toulouse vs Olympique Marseille?
Toulouse score 1.42 goals per game on average and Olympique Marseille 1.85. The Ligue 1 average is 2.83 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 48% of Toulouse's matches and 50% of Olympique Marseille's.
What form are Toulouse and Olympique Marseille in?
Over the last 5 games Toulouse have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Olympique Marseille 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Toulouse vs Olympique Marseille?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Toulouse vs Olympique Marseille: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.