Toulouse vs Paris: match statistics
Toulouse displays significantly better home form with a 36% win rate and an impressive +4 goal difference at their own stadium. The hosts score an average of 1.73 goals per home match with a solid 12% conversion rate and a high xG of 1.59. Paris FC is in a difficult away situation with only a 27% win rate on the road, a negative -5 goal difference, and poor form in their last five matches (0 wins, 0.6 points per game). The visitors concede an average of 1.55 goals away, which, combined with their low offensive efficiency (1.09 goals on average), puts them at a disadvantage. Toulouse should capitalize on their home advantage and secure the three points, although Paris FC is capable of fighting for draws, as evidenced by their 27% draw rate away from home.
Toulouse vs Paris: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Toulouse played Paris in Ligue 1 (France). The match was played on 21 February 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Toulouse: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Paris: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Toulouse scores 1.45 and concedes 1.18 goals per match. Paris scores 1.18 and concedes 1.77. League average: 2.83 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Toulouse 41%, Paris 59%. Over 2.5: Toulouse 50%, Paris 59%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Toulouse has higher xG: 1.44 vs 1.26. Toulouse: 12.8 shots per match, Paris: 11.4.
Match halves
Toulouse: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.91. Paris: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.68.
Goals by minute
Toulouse: 76-90+ (10 goals). Paris: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ligue 1: 2.83 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Toulouse displays significantly better home form with a 36% win rate and an impressive +4 goal difference at their own stadium. The hosts score an average of 1.73 goals per home match with a solid 12% conversion rate and a high xG of 1.59. Paris FC is in a difficult away situation with only a 27% win rate on the road, a negative -5 goal difference, and poor form in their last five matches (0 wins, 0.6 points per game). The visitors concede an average of 1.55 goals away, which, combined with their low offensive efficiency (1.09 goals on average), puts them at a disadvantage. Toulouse should capitalize on their home advantage and secure the three points, although Paris FC is capable of fighting for draws, as evidenced by their 27% draw rate away from home.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Toulouse | Paris | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Toulouse is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Toulouse · 1.2 pts / match - Paris
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toulouse is 23% better for: goals scored per match.
1.45 goals / match - Toulouse · 1.18 goals / match - Paris
Toulouse is 50% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.18 goals / match - Toulouse · 1.77 goals / match - Paris
Toulouse scores in 68% of matches (15 of 22 matches), while Paris keeps a clean sheet in 23% (5 of 22 matches).
Paris scores in 68% of matches (15 of 22 matches), while Toulouse keeps a clean sheet in 36% (8 of 22 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Toulouse
Over / Under - Paris
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Toulouse is 50% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.23 pts / match - Toulouse · 0.82 pts / match - Paris
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Toulouse - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Paris - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 23%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +4 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Toulouse
Paris
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligue 1).
Teams vs league
| Toulouse | Liga | Paris | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.64 | 2.83 | ▲ 2.95 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 41% | 50% | ▲ 59% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 52% | ▲ 59% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 36% | 29% | ▼ 23% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 64% | 71% | ▲ 77% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 68% | 79% | ▼ 68% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Toulouse 1 - 0 - 0 Paris. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Toulouse vs Paris?
The Ligue 1 match finished Toulouse 1:1 Paris. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Toulouse vs Paris?
Toulouse score 1.45 goals per game on average and Paris 1.18. The Ligue 1 average is 2.83 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 41% of Toulouse's matches and 59% of Paris's.
What form are Toulouse and Paris in?
Over the last 5 games Toulouse have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Paris 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Toulouse vs Paris?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Toulouse vs Paris: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.