TPS vs Inter Turku: match statistics

Inter Turku sit 2nd in the table, while TPS are seventh, and the visitors have lost only 2 of their 20 matches all season. The current run also favors Inter: they have taken 11 points from their last five matches without defeat, compared with TPS’s 7 points from two wins, one draw, and two losses. TPS are, however, very dangerous at home, where they win 70% of their matches, score an average of 1.8 goals, and have not failed to find the net in a single game. In a more evenly balanced encounter, the visitors’ defensive organization could prove decisive: Inter allow opponents an xG of 1.17 away from home, significantly lower than TPS’s home figure, with an average xG against of 1.74. Both teams score 1.8 goals per match at home or away respectively, making a draw a realistic outcome; however, Inter’s more consistent form and lower goals-against figure point to a narrow away victory.

The signal for both teams to score is reinforced by their current form: both TPS and Inter Turku recorded BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches. During this period, both teams averaged 1.6 goals scored per game, while TPS conceded 1.2 and Inter Turku 1.0. TPS produces a high average xG of 1.86 at home and registers 5.1 shots on target per match, whereas Inter Turku allows opponents an xG of 1.17. The visitors are also consistently dangerous, scoring 1.8 goals per game this season with an xG of 1.44, although their task is made more difficult by TPS’s defensive record of just 0.6 goals conceded per match. The seasonal BTTS rates for both teams stand at 50%, but the stronger recent data and the attacking potential of both sides give a slight edge to the “BTTS - Yes” scenario.

TPS concede an average of just 0.6 goals per match this season and have stayed below the 3.5-goal line in 100% of their games. Inter Turku do score 1.8 goals per match, but their games have finished with Under 3.5 goals in 60% of cases, while their average goals conceded stands at 1.0. The last five appearances of both teams were more open, as each side recorded Over 2.5 goals in 60% of their matches, but the combined projected total of 2.60 goals still clearly does not point to a four-goal game. The home side create plenty of chances, averaging 1.86 xG and 16.2 shots, but convert only 6% of their attempts, which limits the risk of a high-scoring outcome. The strongest signal remains Under 3.5 goals, supported by TPS’s very solid defensive record and the fact that they have not played a match with at least four goals this season.

Inter Turku have won 60% of their matches this season and remain unbeaten in their last five, while TPS have lost 40% of their last five games. The visitors were leading at the break in 5 of 10 matches, or 50% of the time, compared with just 20% for TPS; the hosts went into half-time trailing in as many as 30% of their matches. Inter average 1.8 goals per game and score 1.0 after the break, compared with TPS’s 0.5 goals in second halves. Although TPS have the better average xG, 1.86 versus 1.44, Inter are significantly more clinical in front of goal, converting 15% of their shots into goals compared with 6% for the hosts. The most likely outcome is therefore an HT/FT scenario in which Inter Turku take the lead at the break and hold on to it until the final whistle.