TPS vs SJK: match statistics

TPS remain unbeaten in their last five matches, scoring 8 goals and conceding just 3, while SJK have won only once during that period. At home, the hosts win 64% of their matches, average 1.64 goals scored and concede just 0.82, whereas SJK win only 9% of their away fixtures. The visitors have a clear efficiency problem on the road: they average 0.82 goals, fail to score in 55% of matches and convert just 7% of their shots, compared with 15% for TPS. TPS keep a clean sheet in 55% of their home matches, while SJK lose 55% of their away games and concede an average of 1.64 goals there. Although both teams have similar xG figures—1.38 for TPS and 1.34 for SJK—the hosts’ advantage in current form, chance conversion and home results clearly points to a TPS victory.

TPS has a high seasonal rate of matches in which both teams score, at 64%, but SJK achieves only 45% in this regard, falling to just 40% in their last five matches. The strongest argument against BTTS - Yes is the visitors’ limited attacking efficiency: they score an average of 0.82 goals per match, have failed to score in 55% of their appearances, and convert only 7% of their shots. TPS have improved defensively over their last five league fixtures, conceding just 0.6 goals per match, or 3 goals in total, despite opponents creating chances worth an average of 1.84 xG against them. The hosts should create opportunities, given their seasonal xG of 1.79 and SJK’s average of 1.64 goals conceded, but it is more likely that at least one team—particularly the visitors—will fail to score. Therefore, the preferred market is BTTS - No: this means that at least one team will not score, and does not automatically imply a 0:0 result or that neither team will find the net.

TPS create chances worth an average of 1.79 xG at home and take 15.73 shots per match, while SJK concede an average of 1.64 goals away from home. The hosts have scored at least two goals in total in 91% of their matches, compared with 73% for SJK, which clearly supports the Over 1.5 goals line. SJK have limited attacking potential away from home, averaging 0.82 goals scored and failing to score in as many as 55% of matches, so expectations for the visitors are lower. Nevertheless, TPS have scored 8 goals in their last five matches, while SJK have conceded 6 during the same period, giving the hosts a realistic chance of covering the low line on their own. The projected total of 2.45 goals suggests that Over 1.5 has the strongest support, while the 2.5 line remains considerably more balanced.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a TPS win, as SJK were level at the break in 6 of 11 matches, or 55% of cases. The opening stages point to a low-scoring game: TPS average 0.36 goals before half-time, SJK 0.27, while both teams keep a clean sheet at the break in 45% of matches. After the interval, the hosts’ advantage becomes clear: TPS score an average of 1.09 goals and concede 0.55, whereas SJK score 0.55 and concede as many as 1.09 goals. TPS win the second half in 55% of matches and average 1.91 points in those periods, compared with just 9% of second-half wins and 0.64 points for SJK. In addition, TPS have shown greater consistency, remaining unbeaten in their last 5 matches and conceding only 0.6 goals per game, which further supports the HT/FT turnaround scenario from a draw to a TPS victory.