Trabzonspor vs İstanbul Başakşehir: match statistics

Trabzonspor is the favorite in this match: at home they have a 64% win rate, score on average 1.93 goals per game and register average xG of 1.84, while İstanbul Başakşehir away scores 1.50 goals and xG 1.52 (xG difference 0.32). The hosts’ form is clearly superior — in the last 5 matches Trabzonspor have 4 wins and 1 draw, scoring 8 goals and averaging 2.6 points per game, while Başakşehir have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, 5 goals and an average of 1.6 points per game. In chance creation the hosts dominate: on average 17.14 shots and 5.86 shots on target per game for Trabzonspor versus 13.64 shots and 4.71 on target for the visitors, with the same shot conversion rate of around 11%, indicating a higher volume and quality of chances. Defensively both teams concede on average 0.93 goals per game, but xG against is slightly lower for the hosts (1.27 vs 1.32), and the hosts have a 0% share of matches without scoring compared to 29% for the visitors, which reduces the risk of defeat. Considering the higher league position (3rd vs 5th), better home goal difference (+14 vs +8) and the advantage in chance creation, I predict a home win.

Trabzonspor has BTTS at 67% at home, while İstanbul Başakşehir have 43% on the road, against a league BTTS average of 55%, providing a moderately strong signal for a Goal/Goal scenario. Both teams generate chances: seasonal xG is 1.48 (Trabzonspor) and 1.52 (Başakşehir), with average goals 1.73 and 1.50 — combined around 3.23 goals per game, clearly above the league average of 2.62. In the last 5 matches Trabzonspor scored 1.6 and conceded 0.6 on average (recent BTTS 60%), whereas Başakşehir recorded 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded (recent BTTS 40%), which partially reduces confidence in the home side conceding. A counterpoint is the higher clean sheet expected rate for the visitors at 43% versus 33% for the hosts and the visitors’ lower seasonal BTTS of 43%, so the risk of No Goal is not negligible. Weighing these values (67% vs 43%, 3.23 expected goals vs 2.62 league, xG 1.48+1.52) I give BTTS = Yes with an estimated 60% vs 40% for No Goal.

Both teams have a high share of matches over 1.5 goals: Trabzonspor 80% and İstanbul Başakşehir 79%, which strongly supports Over 1.5. Based on xG: home xG_for = 1.48 vs. away xG_against = 1.32 gives expected home goals ≈1.40; away xG_for = 1.52 vs. home xG_against = 1.41 gives expected away goals ≈1.47, total xG ≈2.87. A Poisson model with mean 2.87 prices probability of Over 1.5 at ~78%, Over 2.5 at ~55% and Over 3.5 at ~32%, consistent with seasonal Over2.5 rates (53% home, 64% away) and low Over3.5 (27%/14%). Additionally, hosts score on average 1.73 goals per match, visitors 1.50, and in the last 5 games the goals tally is 8–5, confirming the pair’s offensive profile; therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5.

Trabzonspor has a clear first-half edge: the hosts average 0.87 goals by HT versus Başakşehir’s 0.57, and they led at the break in 40% of their matches while the visitors did not lead at half-time in their last 5 matches (0%). In the last 5 fixtures the hosts won 4 of 5 (80%) and their goals-per-game in that period is 1.6 versus 1.0 for the visitors, which increases the likelihood of a full-time win for the hosts. Second-half stats show both teams frequently score after the break (80% of the hosts’ matches and 79% of the visitors’ matches have >0.5 goals in the second half), but the hosts average 1.0 goal after HT in their last 5 matches versus 0.25 for the visitors. For these reasons the most probable scenario is the hosts leading at the break and winning at full-time (1/1) — I assign it a 28% probability; the alternative is a draw at half-time and a hosts’ win (X/1) at about 25% probability.