Trans vs Nõmme Kalju: match statistics
Trans vs Nõmme Kalju: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Trans played Nõmme Kalju in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match was played on 1 May 2026. Final score: 0:3.
Current form
Trans: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. Nõmme Kalju: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Trans scores 1.00 and concedes 2.89 goals per match. Nõmme Kalju scores 2.11 and concedes 0.67. League average: 3.33 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Trans 56%, Nõmme Kalju 44%. Over 2.5: Trans 89%, Nõmme Kalju 44%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 67%.
xG, shots and style
Nõmme Kalju has higher xG: 1.90 vs 1.74. Trans: 14.6 shots per match, Nõmme Kalju: 16.0.
Match halves
Trans: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.33. Nõmme Kalju: half-time lead 56%, second-half goals 1.33.
Goals by minute
Trans: 31-45+ (4 goals). Nõmme Kalju: 61-75 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Meistriliiga: 3.33 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 67%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-3. Average goals 2.20, BTTS 60%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Nõmme Kalju appears to be the favorite: the visitors sit 2nd in the table versus Trans in 10th, with 19 goals scored and 6 conceded this season compared to Trans’s 9 scored and 26 conceded. In the last 5 matches Nõmme scored 11 and conceded 5 (goal difference +6), while Trans scored 5 and conceded 20 (GD −15), which highlights a clear advantage in form for the visitors. Defensively Nõmme is markedly better — they concede on average 0.25 goals away and have 75% clean sheets on the road, whereas Trans at home concede 1.25 on average and have only 25% matches without conceding. The hosts create more (home xG 2.42 and 20.25 shots per match versus visitors’ xG 1.74 and 14.25 shots), but poor conversion and catastrophic recent results limit their chances. Considering league position, goal differential and the visitors’ defensive stability, plus Nõmme’s 1.4 points average in the last 5 matches versus Trans’s 0.6, I predict a Nõmme Kalju win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Trans has a seasonal BTTS 80% and 80% of matches over 2.5 goals, and in the last 5 fixtures concedes on average 4.0 goals (20 in 5), which significantly increases the opponent’s chance to score. Nõmme Kalju formally has a seasonal BTTS 0% and 75% clean sheets, but in the last 5 matches scored 11 goals (avg 2.2) and had BTTS in 60% of those games, so in current form they can find the net. Additionally Trans generates 2.04 xG versus Nõmme Kalju’s 1.74 xG, has 6.8 shots on target versus 4.0 and a higher conversion rate (17% vs 7%), indicating real goal-scoring potential on both sides. Considering the league average BTTS 57% and average goals 3.29, I assess the probability of BTTS at 75% versus 25% No Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG, expected goals are about 1.61 for Trans and 1.48 for Nõmme Kalju, totaling 3.09 goals. Trans score an average of 3.0 goals per home game, have an xG of 2.04 and Over 1.5 in 100% of home matches, but conceded 20 goals in the last 5 matches (4.0 avg), which increases the risk of goal outcomes. Nõmme Kalju have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches (2.2 avg) and have a recent xG of 1.91, despite a seasonal 75% clean sheet rate away, suggesting an attacking form in recent performances. Trans average 17.4 shots (6.8 on target) with 17% conversion, Nõmme average 14.25 shots (4.0 on target) with 7% conversion; combined this favors multiple chances and goals. A Poisson model with total expected goals 3.09 gives probability of Over 1.5 ≈81%, Over 2.5 ≈60% and Over 3.5 ≈37%, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (line 1.5).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal at half-time comes from Nõmme Kalju: they led at the break in 3 of 4 matches (leadingAtHT_away = 3, leadingAtHTPercentage_away = 75%) and have on average 0.0 goals conceded by half-time (concededAVGHT_away = 0.0). However, Trans is very active after the interval — scored_2hg_avg_home = 2.2, AVG_2hg_home = 2.4 and wins_2hg_percentage_home = 80% — and the hosts scored 6 goals in minutes 61–75 and 5 goals in minutes 76–90 (11 goals after the 60th minute), indicating a strong turnaround potential. The hosts’ xG is 2.04 versus the visitors’ 1.74 and shot conversion is 17% vs 7%, which further favors Trans converting chances into goals after the break. In summary, the most likely scenario is HT: away team leading, FT: home team overturns the result (HT/FT 2/1), so I assigned the highest probability to that scenario (28%), with 2/X (12%) and 1/1 (18%) as the next relevant variants.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Trans | Nõmme Kalju | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nõmme Kalju is 133% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Trans · 1.4 pts / match - Nõmme Kalju
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nõmme Kalju is 111% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Trans · 2.11 goals / match - Nõmme Kalju
Nõmme Kalju is 331% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.89 goals / match - Trans · 0.67 goals / match - Nõmme Kalju
Trans scores in 67% of matches (6 of 9 matches), while Nõmme Kalju keeps a clean sheet in 44% (4 of 9 matches).
Nõmme Kalju scores in 89% of matches (8 of 9 matches), while Trans keeps a clean sheet in 11% (1 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Trans
Over / Under - Nõmme Kalju
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nõmme Kalju is 89% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Trans · 1.89 pts / match - Nõmme Kalju
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Trans - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 22%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Nõmme Kalju - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 56% of matches and wins 67%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Average goals in match | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 100% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -5 | -10 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +6 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -8 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (7 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Trans
Nõmme Kalju
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Trans | Liga | Nõmme Kalju | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.89 | 3.33 | ▼ 2.78 |
| Both teams scored | • 56% | 57% | ▼ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 89% | 67% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 11% | 23% | ▲ 44% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 89% | 74% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 91% | ▼ 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Trans 1 - 1 - 3 Nõmme Kalju. Average goals 2.20, both teams scored in 60% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Trans vs Nõmme Kalju?
The Meistriliiga match finished Trans 0:3 Nõmme Kalju. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Trans and Nõmme Kalju?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Trans won 1, Nõmme Kalju won 3 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.20 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Trans vs Nõmme Kalju?
Trans score 1.00 goals per game on average and Nõmme Kalju 2.11. The Meistriliiga average is 3.33 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 67% of games. Both teams score in 56% of Trans's matches and 44% of Nõmme Kalju's.
What form are Trans and Nõmme Kalju in?
Over the last 5 games Trans have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Nõmme Kalju 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Trans vs Nõmme Kalju?
The statistical background for Trans vs Nõmme Kalju — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.