TransINVEST Vilnius vs Sūduva: match statistics

TransINVEST Vilnius are the clear favorites: at home they average 1.4 goals per game with xG 1.69, while conceding 0.8 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 60% of matches. Sūduva on the road averages just 0.6 goals with xG 1.44, concedes 1.2 goals and keeps a clean sheet in only 20% of games. The hosts are also significantly more efficient in conversion – 10% shot conversion at home versus 5% for the visitors – and less likely to finish matches goalless (20% vs 40%), which, combined with a higher average of shots (14.6 vs 12.6), gives them an advantage in creating and converting chances. Form supports this numerically: TransINVEST averages 2.4 points in their last 5 matches and have won 4 of those 5, scoring as many as 22 goals in that period, whereas Sūduva have scored 8 goals and average 1.4 points in their last 5. Additionally, Sūduva have no away wins (0% wins) and suffer 60% defeats in away matches, which increases the probability of a home success. Considering the superiority in conversion, defense (0.8 vs 1.2 goals conceded) and recent form, I estimate the chances as: TransINVEST win ~65%, draw 20%, Sūduva win 15%.

TransINVEST as the home side has a phenomenal defense: 83% clean sheets and an average of 0.33 goals conceded per game this season, which strongly argues against the BTTS scenario. Sūduva away scores only 0.6 goals on average and, despite a season BTTS rate of 60%, has a low shot conversion of 5%, while Sūduva's xG is 1.44 versus 1.49 for the hosts. However, in the short term (last 5 matches) we observe a deviation: TransINVEST has scored an average of 4.4 goals (BTTS 60% in last 5), and Sūduva has averaged 1.6 goals with BTTS in 80% of those games, which increases the risk of Goal/Goal. Considering that the hosts' season figures (83% clean sheets and 0.33 conceded) are a much stronger, long-term signal than short-term fluctuations, and that the visitors average only 0.6 away goals on the season, the No Goal/clean sheet expected scenario is more likely. Therefore I assign a 70% probability to 'no' and 30% to 'yes', with the caveat that if Sūduva maintains their last-5 form (1.6 goals and 80% BTTS), the probability of 'yes' would rise.

The xG-based model gives expected goals of 1.38 for TransINVEST and 1.35 for Sūduva (total 2.73), which in a Poisson model translates to ~76% chance of OVER 1.5, ~52% for OVER 2.5 and ~29% for OVER 3.5. TransINVEST has xG_for 1.49 and averages 12.0 shots/match with a 15% conversion, Sūduva xG_for 1.44 with 12.6 shots and 5% conversion, so the quality of created chances is comparable but the home side is more clinical. Additionally, in the last 5 matches TransINVEST scored 22 goals (4.4 avg.) and Sūduva 8 goals (1.6 avg.), and the percentage of matches over 2.5 in the last 5 is 100% for the home team and 80% for the visitors, which strengthens the over signal. Considering the total expected goals of 2.73 and the highest probability for OVER 1.5 (76%), I recommend betting OVER 1.5 as the strongest and most statistically justified option.

TransINVEST is the clear favorite: the home side scores on average 1.83 goals per match versus Sūduva’s 0.6 and concedes only 0.33 goals per match. The hosts have won 67% of fixtures, while the visitors have no wins (0%). At half-time TransINVEST led in 3 matches (50%) this season, and in the last 5 matches they led at the break in 4 of 5 (80%), with average first-half goals of 0.83 for the home side versus 0.2 for the visitors. Both teams’ xG are similar (1.49 vs 1.44), but the hosts have markedly better shot conversion (15% vs 5%), which translates into a tangible goals advantage. Additionally, TransINVEST keep a clean sheet in 83% of season matches versus Sūduva’s 20% and are in form with 4 wins in their last 5. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is a half-time lead and full-time win for the home side (1/1).