Trefelin vs Cambrian & Clydach: match statistics

Cambrian & Clydach come into this fixture in clearly better form: they have collected 8 points from their last five matches, winning twice and losing only once, while Trefelin have managed just 2 points without a single victory. The hosts have scored only 3 goals in 7 matches this season, averaging 0.33 goals per home game and failing to score in 67% of their home fixtures. The visitors are far more effective away from home, averaging 1.50 goals, 4.75 shots on target and a 13% shot conversion rate, compared with Trefelin’s 2.33 shots on target and 3% conversion rate. The hosts’ defence also offers little encouragement, conceding 2.33 goals per home match, keeping no clean sheets and allowing opponents an xG of 1.54. Cambrian & Clydach are not flawless away from home, but their attacking xG of 1.40 and significantly more stable recent form point towards an away win.

Trefelin has a season BTTS rate of 67%, but their current attacking efficiency has clearly declined: they have averaged just 0.6 goals and scored 3 goals in total across their last 5 matches. Cambrian & Clydach are in better attacking form, averaging 1.6 goals in their last five fixtures, while Trefelin conceded as many as 2.4 goals per match over the same period. The key risk for BTTS is the possibility that the hosts fail to score, despite a high seasonal xG of 1.85, as their current xG has dropped to 1.18. The visitors have kept a clean sheet in 25% of matches, and their latest BTTS rate is only 40%; therefore, the outcome in which at least one team fails to score is slightly more likely.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as at least one goal has been scored in every match played by both teams so far, while the hosts have exceeded the 1.5-goal line in 67% of their matches and the visitors in 100%. Cambrian & Clydach average 1.50 goals per match, while Trefelin’s defence has conceded 2.40 goals per game in their last five outings, clearly supporting the visitors’ scoring potential. Trefelin have been weaker in attack in their recent form, scoring just 0.60 goals per match across their last five fixtures, but their opponents have kept a clean sheet in only 25% of matches. The projected total of 2.70 goals is above the 2.5 line, but the hosts’ mixed results at this line reduce confidence, making Over 1.5 the safer option with a clearer edge.

The strongest scenario is Cambrian & Clydach leading at the break and winning the match, as Trefelin have failed to win any of their last five fixtures, scoring only 0.6 goals and conceding as many as 2.4 per match. Over the same period, the visitors won 40% of their matches, averaged 1.6 points per game, and scored 1.6 goals on average while conceding 1.4. Trefelin failed to score in any of their last five first halves and were trailing at half-time in 60% of cases, while Cambrian & Clydach conceded an average of just 0.8 goals before the break. After half-time, the visitors’ advantage remains clear: across their last five matches, they averaged 1.4 goals in the second half, while the hosts conceded 1.4 goals during that period. Additionally, Trefelin’s seasonal xG stands at 1.85 compared with the visitors’ 1.40; however, the hosts are in poor scoring form, and Cambrian & Clydach can exploit their current defensive instability.