Trefelin vs Penybont: match statistics

Penybont remain unbeaten in the league after 7 matches, recording 4 wins and 3 draws, while Trefelin have failed to win any of their 7 games and have suffered 5 defeats. The visitors are significantly more clinical away from home, averaging 2.33 goals per match compared with Trefelin’s 0.33 at home, while their finishing accuracy stands at 21% versus 3%. Penybont’s superiority is also evident in chance creation, as they average 1.48 xG away from home and 6 shots on target per match, whereas the hosts manage just 2.33 shots on target on average. Trefelin’s defence concedes 2.33 goals per home match and have yet to keep a clean sheet, while Penybont allow opponents just 0.84 xG and concede an average of one goal. Recent form over the last five matchdays also favours the visitors, who have recorded 3 wins and 2 draws, while Trefelin have scored only 3 goals and conceded 12 during that period.

Penybont have very strong attacking potential: they average 2.33 goals, register 6 shots on target per match, and have scored 1.8 goals per game across their last five fixtures. Trefelin, meanwhile, have been less effective in attack, scoring only 3 goals in their last five matches—an average of 0.6—with an average xG of 1.18. The visitors are currently conceding just 0.8 goals per match, while their season-long xG against stands at only 0.84, limiting the hosts’ chances of scoring. Trefelin have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their league matches this season, but their defence has conceded as many as 12 goals in their last five outings, making a Penybont win with at least one team failing to score the most likely scenario. BTTS - Yes has landed in 60% of the last five matches for each side, but Trefelin’s poor recent finishing and the visitors’ solid defence give a slight edge to BTTS - No. BTTS - No means that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically imply a 0-0 draw or that neither team will score.

Penybont clearly offer greater attacking potential: they score an average of 2.33 goals, register 6.0 shots on target per match, and have an xG of 1.48. In their last five matches, Trefelin conceded an average of 2.4 goals, with an xG conceded to opponents of 1.67, which supports the expectation of at least two goals for the away side. At the same time, the hosts create chances worth 1.06 xG, while Penybont have allowed 1.05 xG in their last five matches, making a Trefelin goal a realistic scenario. Over 1.5 goals landed in 100% of Penybont’s matches, while their games produced noticeably more chances on average than the hosts’ matches. The Over 1.5 line has the edge, as the projected total of 2.60 goals provides a greater safety margin than the more balanced 2.5 line.

The strongest signal points to Penybont leading at the break and maintaining their advantage until full time: the visitors were ahead after 45 minutes in 80% of their last five matches, while Trefelin have not led at half-time on any occasion. Over the same period, the hosts scored no goals before the break and conceded an average of 1.0, whereas Penybont scored 1.2 goals and allowed their opponents just 0.2. The visitors have also been clearly superior across their last five matches, averaging 2.2 points per game, 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, compared with Trefelin’s 0.4 points, 0.6 goals scored and 2.4 conceded. Penybont’s offensive advantage is further supported by averages of 6.0 shots on target and an xG of 1.48, while the hosts record 3.0 shots on target and an xG of 1.06; therefore, the 2/2 scenario has the highest probability.