Trento vs Novara: match statistics
Trento displays significantly better form, earning 2 points per match in their last five fixtures, while Novara averages just 0.8 points. The hosts win 45% of their home matches and hold a positive goal difference of +5 at their own stadium, where they score an average of 1.36 goals with 61% possession. Novara draws a staggering 80% of away matches, confirmed by a streak of draws in recent performances, but their offense is weaker (xG 1.22 vs 1.75 for Trento). The qualitative and statistical advantage of the hosts points towards their victory, although Novara's tendency to draw increases the likelihood of a split result. Trento should capitalize on home field advantage and the poor form of the visitors, who have not won any of their last five matches.
Trento vs Novara: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Trento played Novara in Serie C Group A (Italy). The match was played on 17 January 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Trento: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Novara: 0-4-1, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Trento scores 1.33 and concedes 1.10 goals per match. Novara scores 0.86 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.20 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Trento 57%, Novara 52%. Over 2.5: Trento 38%, Novara 24%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 38%.
xG, shots and style
Trento has higher xG: 1.72 vs 1.36. Trento: 13.9 shots per match, Novara: 10.8.
Match halves
Trento: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.76. Novara: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.33.
Goals by minute
Trento: 61-75 (6 goals). Novara: 31-45+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie C Group A: 2.20 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 38%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Trento displays significantly better form, earning 2 points per match in their last five fixtures, while Novara averages just 0.8 points. The hosts win 45% of their home matches and hold a positive goal difference of +5 at their own stadium, where they score an average of 1.36 goals with 61% possession. Novara draws a staggering 80% of away matches, confirmed by a streak of draws in recent performances, but their offense is weaker (xG 1.22 vs 1.75 for Trento). The qualitative and statistical advantage of the hosts points towards their victory, although Novara's tendency to draw increases the likelihood of a split result. Trento should capitalize on home field advantage and the poor form of the visitors, who have not won any of their last five matches.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Trento | Novara | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Trento is 150% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Trento · 0.8 pts / match - Novara
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Trento is 55% better for: goals scored per match.
1.33 goals / match - Trento · 0.86 goals / match - Novara
Novara is 10% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.1 goals / match - Trento · 1 goals / match - Novara
Trento scores in 81% of matches (17 of 21 matches), while Novara keeps a clean sheet in 33% (7 of 21 matches).
Novara scores in 67% of matches (14 of 21 matches), while Trento keeps a clean sheet in 29% (6 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Trento
Over / Under - Novara
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Trento - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Novara - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 14%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Trento
Novara
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie C Group A).
Teams vs league
| Trento | Liga | Novara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.43 | 2.20 | ▼ 1.86 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 57% | 49% | ▲ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 38% | 38% | ▼ 24% |
| Clean sheets | • 29% | 30% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 71% | 66% | ▼ 52% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 76% | 70% | ▼ 62% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Trento 0 - 1 - 0 Novara. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Trento vs Novara?
The Serie C Group A match finished Trento 1:1 Novara. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Trento vs Novara?
Trento score 1.33 goals per game on average and Novara 0.86. The Serie C Group A average is 2.20 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 38% of games. Both teams score in 57% of Trento's matches and 52% of Novara's.
What form are Trento and Novara in?
Over the last 5 games Trento have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Novara 0-4-1 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Trento vs Novara?
The statistical background for Trento vs Novara — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.