Trento vs Treviso: match statistics

Trento have a clearly better record over their last five matches, picking up 5 points from 1 win and 2 draws, while Treviso have managed just 1 point and remain without a victory. The hosts have scored 7 goals during this period, 3 more than the visitors, averaging 1.4 goals per game compared with Treviso’s 0.8. However, both defences have room for improvement, with Trento conceding 8 goals and Treviso 9 across their five appearances. Treviso’s run includes as many as 4 defeats in 5 matches, so home advantage and slightly greater attacking efficiency favour Trento. A draw remains a realistic outcome, as Trento have drawn 2 of their last 5 matches, but a narrow home win is the more likely scenario.

The BTTS signal is mixed, but the scenario in which at least one team fails to score is slightly more likely. Treviso have scored just 4 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.8 per game, while their average xG is only 0.66, limiting the visitors’ chances of finding the net. Trento conceded an average of 1.6 goals during this period and had BTTS in 80% of their matches, so a Treviso goal remains a realistic possibility. At the same time, Treviso recorded BTTS in only 40% of their last 5 appearances and generated significantly lower xG than Trento, who posted 1.66. The hosts averaged 1.4 goals scored, while Treviso conceded 1.8, making a Trento goal without both teams necessarily scoring the most likely outcome. This supports the BTTS - No / No Goal scenario, which means that at least one team does not score; it does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

Data from the last five matches shows that Trento averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Treviso scored just 0.8 goals and conceded 1.8. However, the hosts created significantly better chances, with an average xG of 1.66 compared to Treviso’s 0.66, which supports their advantage but not a very high-scoring game. Trento had 80% of matches finishing Over 2.5 goals in this sample, whereas Treviso’s corresponding figure was only 40%, and the visitors failed to win four of their five matches. The combined projection of 2.30 goals remains below the 3.5 line, making Under 3.5 the most advantageous pick: this bet only loses if at least four goals are scored.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Trento win at full-time, as the hosts were level at the break in 40% of their last five matches, while Treviso recorded this outcome in as many as 50%. Treviso did not take the lead before half-time in any of those five matches, averaging 0.0 goals in the first halves and keeping a clean sheet only once every two games. Trento had a clearly better first-half record: they scored an average of 0.4 goals, conceded 0.2, and led at the break in 40% of their matches, compared with 0% for their opponents. After the break, the hosts score an average of 1.0 goals, while Treviso manage just 0.25, and the visitors lost 80% of their last five matches without recording a single win. Trento's defence does concede 1.4 goals per match after half-time, so a full-time draw remains a realistic alternative; however, Treviso's poor attacking output strengthens the case for a late turnaround in the hosts' favour.